WHO says Covid-19 pandemic is 'one big wave', not seasonal

Re:WHO says Covid-19 pandemic is 'one big wave', not seasonal by glofish on Tuesday July 28, 2020 @01:17PM (#23978191)

As counter intuitive as it sounds there is reason to believe that currently the penetration of the disease is much lower than in March.

The modeling from IMHE claims that in March the number of daily new infections were above 250K whereas today are about 120K.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

see the tab called Infections and Testing

It just that we were measuring a lot many more people now. But it is true that in June there were fewer cases than today, but by far the most cases were in the Winter.

How else would be in the situation where 10% of population is already seropostive and at least as many don't develop antibodies since their symptoms are mild, thus we are probably over 20% of people having had the disease.

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Re:WHO says Covid-19 pandemic is 'one big wave', not seasonal by knzhou on Tuesday July 28, 2020 @01:25PM (#23978290)

> The modeling from IMHE shows that in March the number of daily new infections were above 250K whereas today are about 120K.

Yeah, but the IHME model is also extremely bad. It consists almost entirely of fitting a Gaussian to the number of cases over time. It’s mathematically impossible in their model for the case count to not go down.

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Re:WHO says Covid-19 pandemic is 'one big wave', not seasonal by glofish on Tuesday July 28, 2020 @06:09PM (#23981215)

I am not sure I follow. For any epidemic that is well underway it is impossible for the number cases not to go down over time, it is only the time frame that is under question perhaps.

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Re:WHO says Covid-19 pandemic is 'one big wave', not seasonal by covid2019 on Tuesday July 28, 2020 @01:25PM (#23978298)

Statistics improve but what’s that mean for raw numbers?

Instead of 10s of millions on ventilators, and millions dead it’s millions on ventilators and hundreds of thousands dead?

Statistics are great for science but awful for social policy.

For the same reason that you don’t want someone deciding what religion you should regurgitate. You could end up in the wrong cohort someday.

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Re:WHO says Covid-19 pandemic is 'one big wave', not seasonal by glofish on Tuesday July 28, 2020 @06:08PM (#23981203)

Not sure what you are getting at. The original post is on the topic of whether there are more or fewer infections in the Summer, which it looks to be the case.

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