The modeling from IMHE claims that in March the number of daily new infections were above 250K whereas today are about 120K.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
see the tab called Infections and Testing
It just that we were measuring a lot many more people now. But it is true that in June there were fewer cases than today, but by far the most cases were in the Winter.
How else would be in the situation where 10% of population is already seropostive and at least as many don't develop antibodies since their symptoms are mild, thus we are probably over 20% of people having had the disease.
Yeah, but the IHME model is also extremely bad. It consists almost entirely of fitting a Gaussian to the number of cases over time. It’s mathematically impossible in their model for the case count to not go down.
Instead of 10s of millions on ventilators, and millions dead it’s millions on ventilators and hundreds of thousands dead?
Statistics are great for science but awful for social policy.
For the same reason that you don’t want someone deciding what religion you should regurgitate. You could end up in the wrong cohort someday.
I'm no scientist but that was the end of Winter and there were very few people with it at the time.
Isn't it possible that it is indeed seasonal and it's now in its "weak phase"?
Politicians are load balancing the healthcare system, not the infection rates.
That doesn’t mean the virus got weaker. Rates go up as soon as distance is removed? Doesn’t seem like the virus wants to slow down as a matter of its “real” physical properties
It spread through Winter 2019, Spring 2020, and is spreading during Summer 2020 when trying to “re-open.”
Pretty sure measurable science to support the idea exists. Oh sure that trend may change, but come on, RIGHT NOW it’s literally showing no signs of fading away if we “live normally.”
Why do you need 18 more months of plotting data to decide on what’s literally happening right before your eyes?