> Perhaps the massive jump in active leisure will suddenly manifest but so far no such thing has come to be.

Have you tried to buy exercise equipment lately? What about hiking backpacks? Have you been to Lowe's? Have you heard that there are protests happening across the country?

It seems to me like there has been a massive jump in active leisure.

Seems more likely to me that the people that were previously going to the gym decided to buy their own equipment. There's also something to be said about the quantity of exercise equipment inventory available at any given time.

Possibly, which is why I included three other examples.

Perhaps in part, but bicycle sales are also through the roof producing significant back orders.

This is a good point. I accept this. Especially because I paid an exorbitant $700 for a set of 260 lbs from FringeSport because only their tacticool "MILSPEC" bumper plates were available.

I don't think people being unemployed and staying at home due to a global pandemic is remotely comparable to a situation where people were financially stable but worked less.

Go on then, tell us what factors break down. We can use other similar events to correct for them.

The fact that people don't feel free to enjoy leisure activities when their future is uncertain.

Imagine a person with health conditions that fit the high risk population of COVID mortality. Now, imagine those people with other health conditions (let's say obesity or heart disease) having a small accident that isn't life threatening but does require a trip to the hospital where they have a higher likelihood of contracting COVID.

If I'm one of those at risk people, my "active" activities are going to lean to the safer options I can find like walking or jogging. No mountain climbing, kayaking, skiing, and so forth.

I explained this to my parents who have a few existing health conditions that have a high correlation with COVID mortality rates based on the data I've seen. They don't need to go into the hospital for a cut or injured finger if they can avoid the accident in the first place. Obviously if a real emergency arrives you need to weigh the risks of contracting COVID vs the emergency (an admittedly nearly impossible task) but you should try to minimize risks for the time being where you can to try and avoid that situation completely.

Basically you need to be a little more risk averse than you may normally be under the assumption a minor injury is manageable if you're potentially susceptible to COVID right now.

Tell that to the bike shops in my area, which have seen unprecedented business and have trouble keeping things in stock.

I can tell you that in the musician communities I participate in, there was a surge of new members who are either returning to a hobby or starting fresh.

It seems to have receded already though.

I made my first 2 tracks in over 10 years

Among my friends who are laid off from the virus, I've seen a great deal more of them painting and recording music; they're not aspiring to "make it," they're just doing more of their creative projects. Very small sample size but it makes me sad how it took a global pandemic to give them the time to do their things.

Even for employed people that have been relieved of the grind of commute and unnecessary hours the office, everyone I know is creating more - art (paintings, photography, writing, music) or exercising more, or focusing on their own programming projects or whatever

I bought a bike because I have at least 6-7 hours additional each week to do something new instead of commute, although as suspected, work is already attempting to steal from me.