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Re:Are we in an AI Overhang? by tambourine_man on Monday July 27, 2020 @11:19AM (#23965917)
I think he means “ obvious, immediate, substantial economic value” to non technical people. It take little effort to imagine how to monetize it even for regular folks.
Re:Are we in an AI Overhang? by gillesjacobs on Monday July 27, 2020 @11:39AM (#23966126)
For many GPT1-3 is the first exposure to language modelling technology, which is great, but language modelling and pretraining is already widely used in nearly every NLP task even before GPT1. Any NLP engineer has used this, so it is kind of weird to claim large-scale pretrained LMs are revolutionised with GPT3.

Don't get me wrong the hype is largely deserved because of the performance and engineering/research/funding effort required. Plus cool demos and media marketing from OpenAI helps a lot in spreading awareness.

OpenAI has definitely revolutionised the marketing for language models, no doubt. Let's wait and see if they manage to do the same for the economic valorisation.

Re:Are we in an AI Overhang? by riffraff on Monday July 27, 2020 @11:26AM (#23965992)
really? I am very impressed by GPT-3 but I still don't see any way to make money "obviously" out of it.

Maybe it can be an adjuvant to human in some tasks but then so could existing technologies too, I guess?

Re:Are we in an AI Overhang? by tambourine_man on Monday July 27, 2020 @11:30AM (#23966035)
Do you want a computer that can reliably understand you and give you the best possible answer 99% of the time?

I think most people would go: yes! How much does it cost?

Re:Are we in an AI Overhang? by p1esk on Monday July 27, 2020 @11:40AM (#23966137)
Oh, I thought we were talking about GPT-3
Re:Are we in an AI Overhang? by riffraff on Monday July 27, 2020 @12:08PM (#23966429)
If you're running a search engine maybe.

But everyday people are used to getting 80% answers by search engines, I don't think many would pay for something that is "like google, but a bit better".

This seems the be current issue for many things that we used to pay for (dictionaries, encyclopaedias, newspapers, etc), and I'm not sure this would be different.

Re:Are we in an AI Overhang? by tambourine_man on Monday July 27, 2020 @04:43PM (#23969194)
> "like google, but a bit better"

For simple queries like “who was the president of country X in YYYY” it’s probably just a bit better (if cached, of course, Google search is wicked fast).

But for more complex queries, Google is still remarkably dumb. Or downright insolent, ignoring my verbatim selection or quoted terms.

I’d pay good money for scarily smart search and a “grep for the web” service, that included JSON, CSS, JavaScript, comments, whatever. A toggle button for dumb/smart search

Re:Are we in an AI Overhang? by rytill on Monday July 27, 2020 @12:13PM (#23966472)
I would easily pay money for something that is like Google, but a bit better.
Re:Are we in an AI Overhang? by cambalache on Monday July 27, 2020 @03:47PM (#23968696)
I wont
Re:Are we in an AI Overhang? by sktguha on Monday July 27, 2020 @03:35PM (#23968591)
google's majority revenue is from search. So bit better than google, particularly if it is integrated into bing (as microsoft has invested in openAI) , and allows bing to capture market share from google, would be really lucrative
Re:Are we in an AI Overhang? by notahacker on Monday July 27, 2020 @03:28PM (#23968516)
On the other hand, do you want a computer that gives you less accurate answers than more specialised tools but can spin them into something that looks like an essay? is less obviously monetisable than, say, already commercially available services like Alexa which incorporate NLP but don't rely exclusively on it.
Re:Are we in an AI Overhang? by dwaltrip on Tuesday July 28, 2020 @12:37PM (#23977599)
GPT-3 is not capable of what you are describing.
Re:Are we in an AI Overhang? by vikramkr on Monday July 27, 2020 @11:28AM (#23966012)
I think regular folks are already pretty clued into how other things like text mining and sentiment determination have big markets considering how strong the backlash against tech politically is right now. The everyday public and by extension politicians seem reasonably capable of imagining how data can be monetized for ads, and they dont seem too happy about it.
Re:Are we in an AI Overhang? by tambourine_man on Monday July 27, 2020 @11:33AM (#23966067)
Really? I have the opposite, not as positive impression. I hope you are right though.
Re:Are we in an AI Overhang? by Nasrudith on Monday July 27, 2020 @01:49PM (#23967560)
I think it depends on how you define "clued in". They are aware of its existence but aren't just ignorant of how it works but outright apathetic and hostile to anything which goes against their personal narrative.

Just look at the "Google selling your data" being uncritically accepted when five minutes of thought would conclude it is the last thing Google would want (even a better search algorithim would find it hard to bootstrap on user base and comparable training time) or the casual John Yoo worthy torture of the definition of monopoly to include Goddamned Netflix when whining about FAANG monopolies. That level of generalization and stereotyping is like blaming the Amish for flying planes into the World Trade center because both are radical Sbraham religions.