Re:Ludic Fallacy
by leereeves on Friday July 24, 2020 @06:57AM
(#23937971)
But the example is poorly communicated. It's not clear whether the entire quoted portion is:
A) a hypothetical introduced by the idiom "Assume that..." (which introduces a statement of fact in the hypothetical situation), and we are discussing a scenario in which the coin is in fact fair, in which case Dr. John is correct and Fat Tony is committing the gambler's fallacy, or
B) a scenario in which a third-party tells someone that the coin is fair, but that is simply an assumption that should be updated by new evidence, in which case Dr. John would be committing the ludic fallacy.
The example isn't instructive because anyone reading this and thinking of scenario A isn't disputing the idea that, if this happened in reality, you should throw away the model. They're just interpreting the phrase "assume that" differently.
A) a hypothetical introduced by the idiom "Assume that..." (which introduces a statement of fact in the hypothetical situation), and we are discussing a scenario in which the coin is in fact fair, in which case Dr. John is correct and Fat Tony is committing the gambler's fallacy, or
B) a scenario in which a third-party tells someone that the coin is fair, but that is simply an assumption that should be updated by new evidence, in which case Dr. John would be committing the ludic fallacy.
The example isn't instructive because anyone reading this and thinking of scenario A isn't disputing the idea that, if this happened in reality, you should throw away the model. They're just interpreting the phrase "assume that" differently.