Elo sucks – better multiplayer rating systems for smaller games (2019)

Re:Elo sucks – better multiplayer rating systems for smaller... by dvt on Wednesday July 22, 2020 @12:18AM (#23913877)

> To your coin-flip example, if you model a league in excel you'll find that elo actually results in a rank distribution very consistent with what your intuition would expect (given enough players and enough matches, of course).

This is incorrect. If you simulate Elo with a coin-flip, you'll get something that looks like this (11 players, 1000 matches): https://imgur.com/9O82pRj -- I think this will tend to a geometric distribution (not sure what the p is though, probably depends on the constants).

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Re:Elo sucks – better multiplayer rating systems for smaller... by Godel_unicode on Wednesday July 22, 2020 @12:21AM (#23913891)

>> given enough players and enough matches, of course

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Re:Elo sucks – better multiplayer rating systems for smaller... by dvt on Wednesday July 22, 2020 @01:02AM (#23914081)

Here's 1000 players with 100,000 matches: https://i.imgur.com/1Y08jUB.png

Feel free to try simulating it yourself, but even mathematically it makes no sense to end up with a uniform distribution as we tend to infinity.

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