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A comment on OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin. Parent comment

Re:OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin by graham_paul on Saturday July 18, 2020 @08:14PM (#23885917)
> Given the latest developments, I would put the odds at fifty-fifty within the next decade.

thing is technological development is not linear, you can't predict future development based on the last n decades. You can't assume an AI winter is not coming because it most likely is

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Re:OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin by staticassertion on Saturday July 18, 2020 @08:18PM (#23885931)
> because it most likely is

Is this not you making a prediction, the very sentence after saying one can not predict the future?

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Re:OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin by perl4ever on Saturday July 18, 2020 @08:21PM (#23885946)
Saying an AI winter is coming isn't saying how long it will be for or what the magnitude will be.
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Re:OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin by staticassertion on Sunday July 19, 2020 @12:09AM (#23886924)
OK, so what is it saying?
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Re:OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin by perl4ever on Sunday July 19, 2020 @12:44AM (#23887062)
That progress won't be steady and predictable.
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Re:OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin by graham_paul on Sunday July 19, 2020 @09:04AM (#23889059)
No. This is like saying that if today is not raining, a rainy day is coming
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Re:OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin by mcilai on Saturday July 18, 2020 @08:46PM (#23886060)
> because it most likely is

"Ark estimates that Deep Learning has created $1 trillion in market value so far. " -- we might be headed towards a warm winter

(from https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/01/ark-invests-big-five-t...)

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Re:OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin by graham_paul on Sunday July 19, 2020 @09:06AM (#23889067)
Value is there until it isn't. A lot of the value here comes from its potential rather than its current use
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Re:OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin by drcode on Saturday July 18, 2020 @08:25PM (#23885971)
I neither claimed tech development was linear, nor am I basing future AI progress on the rate of progress in the last decades.

I am basing future AI progress on what AI can do in July of 2020, which I believe already represents substantial progress towards that goal.

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