I don't know, man. Most folks I've met that smoke cigarettes just buy them at the store. Occasionally, when folks travel, they pick them up at a lower tax state (or country). I'm not convinced the black market is really 'significant' since I'm guessing most folks go the legal route. It is just there.

But then again, there is a somewhat thriving black market for detergent and soaps: In the US, Tide is often targeted, as are branded department store body soaps, shampoos, and razor blades. This isn't because soaps and things are taxed.

Also, does tax make up for all of the risk markup? I very highly doubt it. IIRC, prices have gone down in places with legalization, in no small part because the whole process can be done out in the open.