The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

Re:The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a natura... by poof131 on Saturday July 18, 2020 @03:03AM (#23879633)

Is this actually the case? This paper [1] seems to indicate that there are multiple types of gain-of-function research, not just an increase in virulence. In fact, the paper specifically discusses “transmissibility”, which would seem to support the argument of the paper under discussion: “In short, SARS-CoV-2 is possessed of dual action capability. In this paper we argue that the likelihood of this being the result of natural processes is very small”

[1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK285579/

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Re:The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a natura... by sudosysgen on Saturday July 18, 2020 @03:06AM (#23879643)

Sure. The issue is that there would have to be gain-of-function research to reduce virulence and (maybe, it's not entirely clear) to increase transmissivity.

There is no evidence for that AFAIK, and I don't understand why a lab would do a gain of function experiment and reduce function instead.

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Re:The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a natura... by poof131 on Saturday July 18, 2020 @03:22AM (#23879698)

It strikes me as reducing virulence would be a responsible first step before conducting research on increasing transmissivity of a deadly virus.

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Re:The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a natura... by sudosysgen on Saturday July 18, 2020 @03:39AM (#23879758)

Do you have the study where they would have reduced virulence for these reasons? Because reducing the virulence of a virus to such a level that a large part of the population don't even get any symptoms seems odd to say the least.

Also, it's not even clear that COVID-19 is that much more infectious (or at all) than SARS, it seems to me that its explained well enough by so many people brushing it off or not even realizing they have it because it's so much less severe.

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Re:The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a natura... by jakeogh on Saturday July 18, 2020 @05:04AM (#23880100)

Reasons a [malicious|altruistic] actor might do that:

You have the ability to use it to induce fear and therefore behavioral changes. Positive cases are valuable.

Plausible deniability.

Mistakes.

Response.

Testing (as parent pointed out).

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Re:The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a natura... by zxcmx on Saturday July 18, 2020 @06:49AM (#23880469)

Assume it's academic research.

Introducing feature X (regardless of effect) allows you to study X.

You do it to learn more about X, not because you particularly want to engineer something more virulent or lethal.

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Re:The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a natura... by jkhdigital on Saturday July 18, 2020 @08:24AM (#23880928)

Yes, exactly, which is discussed in the paper. The goal of gain of function research isn’t about “let’s make viruses that do crazy shit,” it’s a method of hypothesis testing. When you can successfully add (or remove) stuff then you can test hypotheses that would otherwise not be testable.

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Re:The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a natura... by SomeoneFromCA on Saturday July 18, 2020 @07:55AM (#23880771)

Reduce virulence compared to what? SARS-1? But they are not talking about SARS-1, they actually were talking about some other random bat viruses, which have zero virulence in humans.

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Re:The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a natura... by sudosysgen on Saturday July 18, 2020 @08:04AM (#23880820)

Au contraire, you would expect random bat viruses to be incredibly virulent in humans.

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Re:The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a natura... by SomeoneFromCA on Saturday July 18, 2020 @08:35AM (#23880996)

Really? How is that? Proof? Link?

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Re:The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a natura... by snypher on Saturday July 18, 2020 @11:43AM (#23882120)

This research seems relevant;

>Our key result is that hosts most closely related to humans harbour zoonoses of lower impact in terms of morbidity and mortality, while the most distantly related hosts—in particular, order Chiroptera (bats)—harbour highly virulent zoonoses with a lower capacity for endemic establishment in human hosts.

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rstb.201...

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Re:The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a natura... by SomeoneFromCA on Saturday July 18, 2020 @12:02PM (#23882285)

True, but to be dangerous the have to pass cross species barrier, before that event, virulence is exactly zero. So, random bat viruses have zero virulence in people.

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