I agree with that, but saying "I think x will happen" is not the same as saying "I promise x will happen."

Keep in mind the word "promise" is being used repeatedly and emphatically on forums like this one.

I didn't expect Musk's defenders to offer up a defense whose cornerstone is that his judgment is so poor and his knowledge so weak that it is foolish to trust even short-term predictions about his own products.

It’s not exactly how you’re reading it, but you could say bleeding edge is how he operates. When there is a 51% chance of success, he goes for it. We’re talking in the lab. For consumer products, the standards are different. A lot of his statements are about the lab versions.