Re:The global fertility rate is falling
by monodeldiablo on Wednesday July 15, 2020 @08:42PM
(#23854377)
> What happens when active people are 1/3rd of the population or less and there are no more easy gains to be had?
Old people retire, opening up jobs for younger workers. Old people die, freeing up housing stock and capital and tax money. And these will happen long before Croatia or Romania achiever maximum productivity. There's plenty of fat left to be trimmed.
As long as the sustained rate of youth emigration is below the mortality rate -- or marginally higher while the country continues to develop -- conditions should improve for working age people (ignoring the chaos of politics).
But perhaps I'm misunderstanding your implication or just not thinking this through. Could you elaborate on some of the negatives?
1. A higher population population than Croatia. 2. Higher emigration than Croatia. 3. A lower fertility rate than Croatia.
And yes, the economy is going up despite people becoming old, dying, or just leaving the country. But the reason for that is temporary, it's because Croatia, just like Romania, is still a developing country, you're converting low productivity workers to higher productivity ones.
But how long do you think this can last? What happens when active people are 1/3rd of the population or less and there are no more easy gains to be had?
I just said that things won't look like in Fallout, so why are you even mentioning "apocalyptic hellhole"?
A country doesn't lose 20% or more of its population without major changes happening. It's extremely optimistic to hope that there won't be at least some major negative changes.