Yes, I was referring to covid, but just an example. Initially experts thought thought 1% was correct for covid, AND people thought it was not a big deal.

Thankfully there have been reports that make us think the fatality rate is much less than 1%, but that doesn't change the fact that people though 1% was a tiny number.

I mean, 0.01 is objectively a tiny number. The problem is when you multiply by 328 million ;)

Hence the need for numeracy. You need to be able to do a little bit of thinking for any given number, the context, etc. For example, think about all the people you know, and also how that 0.01 might not be a random sampling of the entire population, but "cluster" in certain cohorts like the elderly, and consider that 0.01 is the worst-case outcome, but in many situations more will still have really bad consequences.