Tesla is poised to become one of few greatest tech behemoths of the world, taking a position were Apple is the closest comparison. Comparisons to existing automakers ignore a host of strategic advantages that are very hard for them to replicate. The details would require a long wall of reasoning, but it's there.

Investors have only realized the credibility of the über Tesla bulls in the last year or so, taking the stock from 5 years of stagnation into a valuation that assigns a significant probability of this happening.

It could certainly run ahead of the ideal probability-weighted likelihood of success for a bit. Also, with the likely S&P500 inclusion triggering a float contraction due to $25 billion of index funds forcibly buying at any cost, a latent buying pressure from $20 billions of short interest and a ~$50 billion actively managed S&P-benchmarked active funds that might buy, a lot can happen in the next few months. The discount rate for "Tesla has a significant probability of being in the position of Apple in 10 years" is not obvious.

This is not some random bubble obviously fueled by braindead retail investors.