Re:California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans ...
by Bahamut on Monday July 13, 2020 @05:12PM
(#23825630)
My guess is that the deaths probably would maintain roughly the same rate for the true number of infected, which is a number we do not know because of asymptomatic cases. That numbers of people testing positive is going up doesn’t mean that the overall rate is going up given we do not know the true infected rate, but number of deaths provides a reasonable proxy for that.
Re:California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans ...
by fragmede on Monday July 13, 2020 @09:47PM
(#23827687)
We understand the disease a bit better, and have better treatments (eg dexamethasone) than we had in March, so I'd expect the true fatality to go down somewhat. (read carefully, this is not in contradiction with the CDC raising their estimate of the IFR). Better treatments are of no use if hospitals are overwhelmed, unfortunately.
One of the more interesting things I've been reading is that we shouldn't think about this as a total binary. There are reports that survivors exhibit have long-term effects, such as neurological issues [1] and lung damage.
So yes, it's good that fewer people are dying! But that doesn't mean everything is simply great now.
[1]: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200622-the-long-term-ef...