Taiwan is much harder, but I was thinking more about precedent: if there is not much international blowback, that’s going to tell them that there won’t be major consequences if they try to ratchet Taiwan into their orbit. The U.S. provided a big shield to Taiwan for years but China has built up a lot and Trump has been ceding power as quickly as he can. It’s not clear to me that the other countries in the region or the EU would set a line and hold it for very long. The international businesses acquiescing to expansion in Hong Kong are probably setting the tone.

Remember, this almost certainly wouldn’t just be a straight-up invasion. I’d assume something more like funding pro-China political parties, expanding business and other ties, and then at some point an incident involving a friendly politician asking for help which never leaves. TSMC is important but just one business and not one many people are going to go to war over when business is going to continue mostly as usual.