The claim that Turkey was soon going to join the EU (which isn't going to happen) and flood the country with Turkish immigrants was a major component of vote leave messaging: "Turkey/NHS/£350 million".

Edit: FYI Dominic Cummings actually blogged about the important of Turkey to their success:

https://dominiccummings.com/2017/01/09/on-the-referendum-21-...

Turkey has actually turned in a net labour importer not so long ago, and it has a robust industrial sector.

Rural Turkey has unemployment issue, but that's a separate matter to Turkish migrants to EU.

Turkish migration to EU is much more white collar, and urban.

P.S. The most hilarious rightist conspiracy theory I've heard of was that of Boris Johnson being a Turkish spy

To be fair Angela Merkel flooded Germany with millions of immigrants from the middle East.

Here's a source if you need one: https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/europes-border-crisis/germ...

Immigration was a big part of it.

Although unemployment was officially low, many in low end jobs felt that the huge influx of Eastern Europeans pushed wages down.

There is also the societal aspect of it because of the demographic change caused by a large influx of immigrants into an area.

Then, the prospect of Turkey joining the EU was raised, which would mean free movement for Turkish nationals and that scared people as well.

They may be disappointed when they discover the rules aren't made in Brussels because the UK joined the EU, but because it's the UK's largest trading partner and the largest trade bloc in the world.

Brexit will simply make their position worse.

> but because it's the UK's largest trading partner and the largest trade bloc in the world.

The North American trade bloc (NAFTA/USMCA) is actually slightly bigger by both GDP and population, though the EU is, yes, the UK’s biggest trade partner.

OK second largest. It makes them a formidable interlocutor in negotiations, and the power imbalance means things will inevitably be decided in Berlin which impact the UK on regulations, trade, tariffs and FOM. The UK has little leverage and power in this relationship.

No. As anyone with an interest in politics in the UK will tell you, free movement literally ended yesterday.

The problem with trying to threaten the EU with a no deal exit is it's like a bank robber threatening to blow his own head off - messy, undesirable, but ultimately not very persuasive.

It's mutually assured destruction. The EU doesn't want to lose billions of dollars in trade either.

I don't think the EU will be moved by this. They can easily wait till the UK exits without a deal then be in an even stronger negotiating position.

You understand the concept of 'mutual', right?

Like the bank robber, you seem to mistake a threat of self-harm by the UK for an existential threat to the EU. No deal is not mutually assured destruction, it's certain destruction for the UK and some damage to the EU.

That's not a very convincing lever in a negotiation. The final relationship will benefit the EU far more than the UK, simply because of the balance of power, regardless of delusions to the contrary and empty bombast from Johnson.

OK, you think the EU wants to deliberately damage itself, like your bank robber analogy. You're welcome to your opinion.

They'd be wrong.

A bill passed its 3rd reading in house of commons. It needs to get through the House of Lords. It still has some way before becoming law.

https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/laws/passage-bill/common...

And when the UK crashes out of EU with no deal we'll inevitably re-allow free movement of EU workers because we have no bargaining power.

You're right. It needs to go through Lords. It will.

Regarding your last sentence: leaving no-deal off the table, and this being unable to walk away, would have meant we have no bargaining power.

> And when the UK crashes out of EU with no deal

It’s incredible how many times people have cried wolf about this.

If we have a deal that's going to include freedom of movement; if we don't have a deal we're going to be forced to include freedom of movement to get trading.

There's no version of the UK in 2022 that doesn't have freedom of movement for EU citizens.

Or repay the italian debt.