Re:Zero-sum thinking on immigration will make America poorer
by dragonwriter on Monday June 29, 2020 @02:07AM
(#23674833)
> The broader issue is that the US birth rate is 1.77 births per woman -- and falling, which is below the replacement rate
That's the “Total” (e.g., projected hypothetical lifetime) fertility rate; completed fertility rate (measured by women age 40-44, so it's a tiny bit low since some, and an increasing number, of women actually have children past that age) is actually up above the replacement from a low of 1.86 in 2006. TFR is only useful as a tool to project the future CFR, but it has a pretty variable history in actually doing that, and there are reasons to suspect it currently may be underestimating what it will end up being for women currently in their childbearing years for the same (but inverted) reason it overestimated it during the baby boom.
That's the “Total” (e.g., projected hypothetical lifetime) fertility rate; completed fertility rate (measured by women age 40-44, so it's a tiny bit low since some, and an increasing number, of women actually have children past that age) is actually up above the replacement from a low of 1.86 in 2006. TFR is only useful as a tool to project the future CFR, but it has a pretty variable history in actually doing that, and there are reasons to suspect it currently may be underestimating what it will end up being for women currently in their childbearing years for the same (but inverted) reason it overestimated it during the baby boom.