Re:Initial Covid-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater t...
by zaroth on Wednesday June 24, 2020 @03:58AM
(#23625337)
I think the mistake that many people keep making is trying to nail down a single IFR. There isn’t one.
The fatality rate depends heavily on the demographics of the infected population. IFR of a entirely young demographic would be below 0.01%. IFR of a nursing home would be 3 orders of magnitude higher.
If someone shows me a low IFR I can safely bet that they surely aren’t finding 50% of their cases in their nursing homes.
Conversely, if 50%+ of your cases are in nursing homes, your population IFR is going to look a lot worse than if you had kept that relatively small population safe.
The fatality rate depends heavily on the demographics of the infected population. IFR of a entirely young demographic would be below 0.01%. IFR of a nursing home would be 3 orders of magnitude higher.
If someone shows me a low IFR I can safely bet that they surely aren’t finding 50% of their cases in their nursing homes.
Conversely, if 50%+ of your cases are in nursing homes, your population IFR is going to look a lot worse than if you had kept that relatively small population safe.