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Re:Apple, ARM, and Intel by throwawaygh on Tuesday June 16, 2020 @11:29AM (#23540299)
> manufacturing buckets for job growth in 2018... It is certainly an important sector for economic and strategic reasons, but you are significantly overstating its importance.

But I'm not talking about jobs, at all. The US needs a robust manufacturing sector so that it remains economically competitive. Figuring out how to translate that economic competitiveness into material benefits for individuals is a separate problem. Confusing the two is itself a risk to our economic competitiveness. (To make this point is a somewhat hyperbolic way: if the goal is jobs, build a canal through the center of the country. Using spoons.)

Also, I think the manufacturing output numbers alone miss something important from my original post. Losing semiconductor manufacturing as a core competency also threatens the most profitable and important components of the US services sector.

Re:Apple, ARM, and Intel by vonmoltke on Tuesday June 16, 2020 @11:55AM (#23540663)
> But I'm not talking about jobs, at all. The US needs a robust manufacturing sector so that it remains economically competitive. Figuring out how to translate that economic competitiveness into material benefits for individuals is a separate problem. Confusing the two is itself a risk to our economic competitiveness. (To make this point is a somewhat hyperbolic way: if the goal is jobs, build a canal through the center of the country. Using spoons.)

Why, then, did you ignore the other chart I pointed out that specifically dealt with the economic value?

> Also, I think the manufacturing output numbers alone miss something important from my original post. Losing semiconductor manufacturing as a core competency also threatens the most profitable and important components of the US services sector.

I agree that losing this competency would be damaging. I disagree that it represents a threat. The threat is the continued consolidation of certain types of semiconductor manufacturing into an ever-shrinking pool of companies. While it would be slightly better if that pool were partly concentrated in the US, the size and diversity of that pool is a much bigger issue than where its members are located.

Re:Apple, ARM, and Intel by throwawaygh on Tuesday June 16, 2020 @12:22PM (#23540971)
> Why, then, did you ignore the other chart I pointed out that specifically dealt with the economic value?

The only other chart lists "Computer and electronic products" as the second-largest manufacturing sector, which seems to confirm my assertion that semiconductors have been an important source of growth. It's the second largest category and has had annualized real growth rates 2x+ the rest US manufacturing for decades.

I don't see any breakdown of semiconductors/not-semiconductors for that category, and this is a 2017 snapshot as opposed to longitudinal data, so it's hard to say anything more specific using the data you linked to.

> The threat is the continued consolidation of certain types of semiconductor manufacturing into an ever-shrinking pool of companies. While it would be slightly better if that pool were partly concentrated in the US, the size and diversity of that pool is a much bigger issue than where its members are located.

Sure, I agree. (Caveat of course that geopolitical diversity matters too. N separate SOEs would increase diversity in a way that wouldn't be particularly helpful to the USA, for example.)

In any case, this is actually something I more-or-less agree with, and hence the last sentence of my original post.

Re:Apple, ARM, and Intel by valuearb on Tuesday June 16, 2020 @01:02PM (#23541389)
The US doesn’t need to competency in commodity manufacturing that’s not going to increase our standard of living. Things get offshored when we have better investments to make with our people and capital here.
Re:Apple, ARM, and Intel by sudosysgen on Tuesday June 16, 2020 @01:55PM (#23542007)
The US will not be in the dominant position where it can have such incredibly advantageous trade relationships that it can increase standard of living using only services forever.

It also causes a huge vulnerability.

Re:Apple, ARM, and Intel by valuearb on Tuesday June 16, 2020 @08:36PM (#23546232)
Free trade has only worked for 240 years, let me know when managed trade works once.
Re:Apple, ARM, and Intel by 411111111111111 on Wednesday June 17, 2020 @02:59PM (#23555304)
it worked because the cards were heavily stacked toward the US and other first world countries.

as the developing world improves their standard of living, so does the same decrease for people in the developed world, because these developing nations are no longer dependent on the developed one's.

It was always just a question of time with globalization in effect.

personally, i think that this is a good thing though. we in the developed world have been living unsustainable lives for generations, living off of the developing nations.

though thats most definitely not the only reason why everything has been getting harder for the working population. automation, higher efficiency, extreme concentration of wealth and more do their part in the current situation as well.

Re:Apple, ARM, and Intel by valuearb on Wednesday June 17, 2020 @03:56PM (#23555978)
Our standard of living continues to increase along with the developing world, and free trade deserves much of the credit.
Re:Apple, ARM, and Intel by sudosysgen on Wednesday June 17, 2020 @04:09PM (#23556114)
And eventually many countries in the developing world will have a higher power and higher standard of living than us, and our service industries will not have much of a comparative advantage or really much added value, and power relations will change which will completely upend the favourability of trade relations.
Re:Apple, ARM, and Intel by sudosysgen on Wednesday June 17, 2020 @04:24PM (#23556282)
Hasn't worked for most third world countries, actually. Most that succeeded was with massive state involvement including trade management.
Re:Apple, ARM, and Intel by GeekyBear on Tuesday June 16, 2020 @04:54PM (#23543968)
Somehow, China has managed to create a huge expansion of their middle class with outsourced manufacturing.

>According to a study by consulting firm McKinsey & Company, 76 percent of China’s urban population will be considered middle class by 2022. In 2000, just 4 percent of the urban population was considered middle class.

https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-middle-class-is-explo...

Meanwhile, in America:

>Fewer millennials in 2019 are middle class compared to baby boomers when they were in their 20s

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-middle-class-is-sh...

Re:Apple, ARM, and Intel by throwawaygh on Tuesday June 16, 2020 @05:03PM (#23544086)
Meh. Middle class Chinese means something very different from middle class American. There’s something true here, but the exact comparison you’re making isn’t quite it.

Also, valuearb is kind of right. Except that the right solution is more efficient onshore manufacturing, not offshoring.

Re:Apple, ARM, and Intel by GeekyBear on Tuesday June 16, 2020 @05:25PM (#23544387)
>Middle class Chinese means something very different from middle class American

Of course it does. They do have that extra trillion people to bring the average down.

However, moving the manufacturing jobs from here to there has certainly raised their average standard of living while reducing our own.

Re:Apple, ARM, and Intel by valuearb on Tuesday June 16, 2020 @08:38PM (#23546247)
No it’s raised both our standards of living. Google the law of comparative advantage.
Re:Apple, ARM, and Intel by GeekyBear on Wednesday June 17, 2020 @01:06AM (#23548012)
No, it's raised profit margins for manufacturers who no longer have to pay a living wage, healthcare, benefits, and obey stricter environmental and worker safety regulations.

The unemployed here are not better off.

Re:Apple, ARM, and Intel by valuearb on Wednesday June 17, 2020 @03:57PM (#23555983)
What unemployed? Unemployment was at record low levels before the pandemic.
Re:Apple, ARM, and Intel by GeekyBear on Wednesday June 17, 2020 @07:06PM (#23557892)
Ever been to the rust belt? There is plenty of unemployment in our nation's former manufacturing region.

In addition, a Walmart cashier, Starbucks barista or Uber driver does not have the same standard of living that a UAW member once did.

People are, on average, worse off than the preceding generations, all in the name of higher profit margins for the few.

>Across Western Europe and North America, the middle class is shrinking, according to a new report by the OECD. With each new generation, a smaller share of the population find themselves earning middle incomes.

When the Baby Boomers, who were born between 1943 and 1964, were in their twenties, some 68% were in middle-income households. Only 60% of Millennials, who were born between 1983 and 2002, could say the same at a similar time in their lives.

https://qz.com/1592826/the-middle-class-is-shrinking-generat...

Re:Apple, ARM, and Intel by valuearb on Friday June 19, 2020 @02:16AM (#23571540)
Unemployment statistics and median incomes prove your anecdotes and cherry picked statistics wrong.