Re:For experts who study coronaviruses, a grim vindication
by antibuddy on Monday June 08, 2020 @04:01PM
(#23460149)
Heinsberg study suggests a mortality rate of about 0.36%. This is high, but not "a big threat". Given that with 0.36% and 15% infection spread in the general population (like flu) you look at ca 162k deaths in the US.
It is not even close 5.7% mortality. If it would be that lethal you would look already at over one million deaths.
Sweden is a good example of a country without a lot of counter measures and we see that it will end in the realm of 0.36% lethality (5,4k deaths). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden
Re:For experts who study coronaviruses, a grim vindication
by vzuvz on Monday June 08, 2020 @08:22PM
(#23462296)
5.7% was probably referring to fatality rate.
It is extremely irresponsible to say this is not a big threat. At this rate, the death toll of Covid19 in the US is up to as big as 4 times the seasonal flu. In some countries the mortality will end up being more than 0.8%. Almost 1 in every 100 people dying because of a virus seems like a big threat to me, and it is already clear that this will be way bigger than the Swine Flu.
What would you qualify as a big threat?
Re:For experts who study coronaviruses, a grim vindication
by nikanj on Monday June 08, 2020 @04:27PM
(#23460396)
Sweden regrets their choices https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/0...
Re:For experts who study coronaviruses, a grim vindication
by antibuddy on Monday June 08, 2020 @04:44PM
(#23460562)
That's not exactly what the article is saying tho. Also it doesn't change the 0.36% mortality rate and I might add the high age median of around 80. So we will likely see a lower average mortality afterwards.
How many sr citizen homes do we need to wipe out 1/3 the population in a month or two before its a serious issue? Mortality rate in the us for people who have it tested via test is 5.7% - https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality.