Re:Huawei builds up 2-year reserve of 'most important' US chips
by ksec on Saturday May 30, 2020 @02:13PM
(#23363272)
On the business side of things.
NAND, DRAM, and CPU / SoC from TSMC are all going to or already need EUV. There is no shortage of sales even if you exclude SMIC. ASML currently only produce ~30 of their TwinScan EUV System per year, which is behind their target in 2019, and behind their original target in 2020. And that is without the pandemic shutting down the production for months. The backlog orders are already going all the way to 2022. And if Intel were to keep up with their promise of 7nm EUV you can expect 2023 and 2024 orders are filled as well. All of these are excluding the use of EUV on DRAM and NAND which Samsung is actively researching and testing.
Basically ASML can just say their orders are already filled up to 2025 and tell SMIC to come back later.
NAND, DRAM, and CPU / SoC from TSMC are all going to or already need EUV. There is no shortage of sales even if you exclude SMIC. ASML currently only produce ~30 of their TwinScan EUV System per year, which is behind their target in 2019, and behind their original target in 2020. And that is without the pandemic shutting down the production for months. The backlog orders are already going all the way to 2022. And if Intel were to keep up with their promise of 7nm EUV you can expect 2023 and 2024 orders are filled as well. All of these are excluding the use of EUV on DRAM and NAND which Samsung is actively researching and testing.
Basically ASML can just say their orders are already filled up to 2025 and tell SMIC to come back later.