Re:Mosquitoes kill more than 700k people every year (2017)
by clairity on Friday May 29, 2020 @02:23PM
(#23353628)
yes, IFR was trending toward 0.2-0.3% even in march, and with time it's only become more likely that those are the bounds. flu averages around 0.1% IFR, so likely 2-3X as deadly.
Re:Mosquitoes kill more than 700k people every year (2017)
by saalweachter on Friday May 29, 2020 @05:41PM
(#23355885)
The current CDC "best estimate" is ~0.4%, assuming an R0 of 2.5, with estimates of ~0.2% if the R0 is actual ~2 in the US and ~1% if the R0 is actually 3.
Re:Mosquitoes kill more than 700k people every year (2017)
by throwaway894345 on Friday May 29, 2020 @05:55PM
(#23356013)
Pretty sure that 0.4% is "among people who develop symptoms" and 35% of infections are asymptomatic. So 0.4% of 65% of infections, or ~0.26% of infections.
[0]: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...
Re:Mosquitoes kill more than 700k people every year (2017)
by saalweachter on Friday May 29, 2020 @06:05PM
(#23356096)
Thanks for the correction; everyone else, ignore what I wrote one post up.
(It's a shame HN doesn't support strike-through; that is my preferred way to retract a post without just deleting it in shame.)
Re:Mosquitoes kill more than 700k people every year (2017)
by throwaway894345 on Friday May 29, 2020 @06:18PM
(#23356202)
No problem. This stuff is all very nuanced and rapidly changing. It's hard not to make a mistake.
I read just a couple of days ago that the IFR (infection fatality rate) is only ~0.25%-0.3%? Still ~four times higher than that of the flu, but not ten times greater.