It's not entirely clear to me what the long term impact on demand for software development is.
In some cases, cobbled together ad hoc solutions can last and actually work well for a long time. They avoid the cost of overdesigned systems built for a future that never arrives using fashionable technologies of the day.
In other cases it looks like the externalities of this designless process are far greater than the direct benefits as adding features either slows to a crawl or massively increases the chance of human error.
Judging by the pre-virus job market, there is no sign of any decline in demand for in-house software developers.
What worries me far more than that is the tendency toward funnelling everything through a handful of oligopolist gatekeepers that are in a position to extract a huge share of the value developers create.
EDIT: spelling
Like with those factory owners who extracted huge share of the value that weavers created? Concentration and amplification of imagining/developin/computing/manufacturing power through tools means someone who wields those tools will have more power. Now the question is how to maintain social equality (give some of that power back to people who do not want to have that power?). That currently leads to heavy taxation of production and basic income experiments.
In our industry that often means mandating open access to data and guaranteed access to APIs and distribution channels at reasonable cost under reasonable terms.
Also, we need independent dispute arbitration when it comes to accessing highly concentrated distribution platforms.
I was worried about this too back in the late 90s/early 00s. It certainly seemed to be the way the world was heading at the time.
But I sort of feel like, due to the low startup costs of software, it is going to be much more difficult to happen. Also, in software, economies of scale kinda work in reverse: the more customers you have, the more complex your software has to be, the more people you have to hire to write it, and the less efficient per developer you are.
Today, many users are only reachable via platforms/shops that are severely restricted and/or dominated by a few all powerful overlords that can ban you for life, rendering your skills null and void in the blink of an AI - no recourse.
Some of that is understandable. Users' trust was misused. There is a constant onslaught of all sorts of miscreants trying to exploit every imaginable loophole, technical or social. Everyone is seeking protection in the arms of someone powerful.
But there is also a very large degree of market dysfunction. Just look at their margins. Look at their revenue cut. Look at their terms of service. They can dictate absolutely everything and grant you absolutely no rights whatsoever.
And there are like five of them on the entire planet ruling over those distribution channels.
The only right you have is to walk away. Now try walking away from the only market there is. You're leaving behind 99% of your potential customers.
Not in my worst nightmares would I have imagined a dystopia like this back in the 90s.
There's a famous experiment, where you get people (who aren't programmers) to pair up, with one person blindfolded. The person who can see must instruct their blindfolded partner on how to accomplish some complex mechanical task (e.g. making a cake using ingredients and utensils on the table in front of them.) They're given free rein on what sort of instructions to give.
The instructing partner almost always fails, here, because their naive assumption is that they can instruct the blindfolded partner the same way they would instruct the people they're used to talking to (those almost always being sighted people.) Though, even the people with experience working with blind people (e.g. relatives of theirs), tend to fail here as well, because newly blinded people don't have a built-up repertoire of sensory skills to cope with vague instructions.
Almost all human communication is founded on a belief that the other person can derive the "rest of" the meaning of your words from context. So they give instructions with contextual meanings, unconscious to the fact that their partner can't actually derive the context required.
Obviously, the blindfolded partner here is playing the role of a computer.
Computers can't derive your meaning from context either. If they could, you could just have a single "Do What I Mean" button. But that wouldn't be a computer; that'd be a magic genie :)
The instructing partners who succeed in this experiment, are the people with a "programming mindset"—the people who can repeatedly break the task down until it's specified as a flowchart of instructions and checks that each can be performed without any context the blindfolded partner doesn't possess. And, to succeed at a series of such problems, they also need the ability to quickly attain, for a new kind of "programmable system", an understanding of what kind of context that system does/doesn't have access to, and of how that should change their approach to formulating instructions.
That skill, altogether, is formal modelling.
My point is both skills are necessary, but if the second skill (programming) is sufficiently easy, it can reasonably incorporated into other professions like being a lawyer. I don't think a "programming mindset" is particularly rare, what's stopping these people building their own software is trade skills like familiarity with standards, setting up an IDE and working a debugger.
Coders are reluctant to admit this because they like to see themselves as intelligent in a unique way compared to other professions, but vanishingly few actually have any experience of other professions.
A programmer is exposed, all day long, to clients who do not have the "programming mindset." There are two possible reasons for this:
1. Selection bias — people who have a "programming mindset", just don't end up being the clients of software firms, maybe because they decide to build things themselves. (Unlikely, IMHO: to avoid needing to get someone else to build software for them, they would need to go out and learn the trade-skill minutiae of programming on top of their regular career; few people do this. Also, anyone with a sufficiently-lucrative primary career can see that this is not their comparative advantage, and so won't bother, just like they won't bother to learn plumbing but will instead call a plumber. If these people did exist in sufficiently-large numbers, they would end up being a non-negligent part of software firms' client-base. But this does not happen.)
2. Representative sampling — most people really just don't have this mindset.
Yes, there are exceptions, but they're the exceptions that prove the rule. The "domain of mental best-fit" of programming heavily overlaps with e.g. mathematics, most kinds of engineering, and many "problem-solving" occupations (e.g. forensic investigators; accountants; therapists and behavioral interventionists; management consultants; etc.) But all of these jobs together are still only amount to a tiny percentage of the population. Enough so that it's still vanishingly rare for any of them to end up as the contact-point between an ISV and a client company.
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Another thing we'd see if the "programming mindset" were more common, would be that there'd actually be wide take-up of tools that require a "programming mindset." This does not happen.
We'd expect that e.g. MS Access would be as popular as Excel. Excel wins by a landslide, because while it certainly is programmable, it does not force the sort of structured approach on people that confers benefits (to speed of development and maintainability), but only feels approachable if you have developed a "programming mindset."
We'd expect that Business Rules Engines and Behavior-Driven Development systems would actually be used by the business-people they're targeted at. Many such systems have been created in the hope that business-people would be able to use them themselves to describe the rules of their own domain. But inevitably, a programmer is hired to "customize" them (i.e. to translate the business-person's requirements into the BRE/BDD system's dialect), not because any programming per se is required, but because "writing in a formal Domain-Specific Language" is itself something that's incomprehensible without a "programming mindset."
We'd expect that people who want answers to questions known to their company's database, would learn SQL and write their question into the form of a SQL query. This was, after all, the goal of SQL: to make analytical querying of databases approachable and learnable to non-programmers. But this does not happen. Instead, there's an entire industry (Business Intelligence) acting as a shim to allow people with questions to insulate themselves from the parts of the "programming mindset" required to be able to formally model their questions; and an entire profession (business data analyst) serving as a living shim of the same type, doing requirements-analysis to formalize business-people's questions into queries and reports.
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Keep in mind, the "programming mindset" I'm describing here is not a talent. It's not genetic. It's a skill (or rather, it's a collection of micro-skills, having large overlap with problem-solving and research skills.) It's teachable. If you get a bunch of children and inculcate problem-solving skills into them, they'll all be capable of being programmers, or mathematicians, or chess players, or whatever related profession you like. The USSR did this, and it paid off for them.
The trouble with this skill, as opposed to most skills, is that people that don't learn this skill by adulthood, seemingly become gradually more and more traumatized by their own helplessness in the face of problems they encounter that require this skill-they-don't-have. Eventually, they begin to avoid anything that even smells a bit of problem-solving. High-school educators experience the mid-development stage of this trauma as "math phobia", but the trauma is generalized: being helpless in the face of one kind of problem doesn't just mean you become afraid of solving that problem; it (seemingly) builds up fear toward attempting to solve any problem that requires hard, novel, analytical thinking on your part.
And that means that, by adulthood, many people are constitutionally incapable of picking up the "programming mindset." They just won't start up that part of their brain, and will have an aversion reaction to any attempt to make them do so. They'll do everything they can to shirk or delegate the responsibility of "solving a novel hard problem through thinking."
And these people, by-and-large, are the clients of software firms.
They're also, by-and-large, the people who use most software, learning workflows by rote and never attempting to build a mental model of how the software works. This has been proven again and again in every software user-test anyone has ever done.
Isn't (usually) the moral of a magic genie story that there is no "do what I mean" button? "Be careful what you wish for."
https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/small-matter-programming
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_matter_of_programming
I've long been a fan of end-user programming, and have promoted it in the form of domain-specific languages and visual building of logic. I love that it gives "non-programmer" users the power to (try to) build what they imagine, and have seen it lead to valuable prototypes and successful tools/products/services.
On the other hand, I've come to learn that this is still a form of programming, however higher a layer of abstraction.
Users who attempt a complex problem space will sooner or later run into what experienced programmers deal with every day, the challenge of organizing thought and software.
What typically happens is, as the "non-program" grows larger and more complex, eventually it starts pushing the limits of the abstraction, either of the user's capacity or the system's. That's when they call in a "real" programmer, to get in there and patch up the leaky abstraction, or convert the prototype into actual software in a better-suited language.
I still think low- or no-code programming environments have a lot of potential to change what software means to people, particularly by blurring the boundary between software development as we know it, and forms of "intuitive computing" like putting together mental Lego blocks.
It doesn't seem like any of that has diminished the demand for software professionals.
It is trivially easy to learn, (a weekend), and it is so incredibly powerful. To me, it is a skill like learning how to type properly - it will pay dividends for years to come...
Now I put as many layers as possible between sql and myself.
I don't think the lack of good tools is the reason we still need professional programmers.