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A comment on London may have gone into a Covid-accelerated decline. Parent comment

Re:London may have gone into a Covid-accelerated decline by jdsully on Saturday May 23, 2020 @05:29PM (#23286652)
Because we didn't know just how many people were asymptomatic when the lockdowns first began. The virus is still far worse than the flu but not nearly as bad as initially feared. At this point I think reasonable people can disagree on the right approach moving forward.

Unfortunately once you scare everyone into locking down you can't reverse course on a dime.

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Re:London may have gone into a Covid-accelerated decline by toshk on Saturday May 23, 2020 @05:49PM (#23286825)
I hear this sentiment often lately. But it always looked like 0.6-1 percent deathrate. Already in february this was suggested by one of the researchers at Hopkins, based on the nrs of South Korea at the time. And it's still around that percentage with the latest studies in Europe. Even though it sounds low, that's still a lot of deaths if left uncontrolled.
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Re:London may have gone into a Covid-accelerated decline by nradov on Saturday May 23, 2020 @06:57PM (#23287350)
The latest data indicates an infection fatality rate of about 0.3%.

https://www.sfgate.com/news/editorspicks/article/Los-Angeles...

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Re:London may have gone into a Covid-accelerated decline by toshk on Saturday May 23, 2020 @07:06PM (#23287420)
Latest study in Spain around 1-1.3. 70,000 participants.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-05-14/antibody-study...

Most studies in Europe show this: 0,5 - 1.

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Re:London may have gone into a Covid-accelerated decline by rsynnott on Saturday May 23, 2020 @07:38PM (#23287633)
NYC and Stockholm antibody tests would indicate an IFR more like 1% or a little over.

Though I'd be cautious about being too confident in antibody study results, for now. A lot can depend on test accuracy (especially where covid is rare anyway).

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Re:London may have gone into a Covid-accelerated decline by radioactivist on Saturday May 23, 2020 @08:09PM (#23287848)
That study (and the related Santa Clara study by a subset of the same authors) were torn apart by statisticians for the shoddy methodology and irresponsible selling of its results to the media.
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Re:London may have gone into a Covid-accelerated decline by cma on Saturday May 23, 2020 @06:14PM (#23287023)
UK's model used .9%>. WHO never said >3% IFR, they only said that was the amount of deaths out of current known cases.

This was their criticized quote:

> Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died

It was true.

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