2) Compliance with SIP breaks down along party lines, correct - but it's conservatives who insist that breaking distancing rules is absolutely mandatory to their freedoms. Liberals as a whole are more willing to follow those SIP orders.

3) The rural population has mostly done well because they're fairly insulated from global or even state-wide travel. Unfortunately, the right has taken advantage of the political divide over SIP to organize massive rallies - and pulled in a lot of people from rural areas. Some of them in turn have become infected and now spread things locally. Expect a noticeable uptick in rural places within a few weeks.

(I realize #1 & #2 may be replying to something you didn't say - it's not clear what your "paying attention to federal rhetoric" comment refers to, but it looks like it's about SIP?)

shelter-in-place was always going to be a local policy. The US government is simply not set up for the federal government to enact such a policy. What was expected, however, is for the federal government to take a strong advisory position and state and local governments to more or less follow the federal guidelines. It would also not be out of character to see some strong-arming from the federal government to "encourage" compliance from the states