Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator. The incubation period is 2 weeks, people grow sick enough to be hospitalized in week 3, and death occurs in week 4 or 5. That said, excess deaths are a reliable number, you can't fudge deaths.

I know someone who was recently hospitalized(Texas, US) but was not counted as a coronavirus patient because the test were negative(they didn’t test for anti bodies). The illness resembles almost everything I have read about people with complications from the virus. Doctors & nurses when asked, they all say that for the anti bodies test, the patient would have to go some place else.

The typical incubation period is more like 5 - 6 days. A 2 week incubation period is possible, but very rare.

> That said, excess deaths are a reliable number, you can't fudge deaths.

Excess deaths aren't a reliable indicator of COVID-19 impact because of post hoc ergo propter hoc problems.