Certainly not the US. One of the US's greatest geopolitical advantages is that it actually does have all the natural resources it needs in the America's. That's why calls for isolationist policies can be so enticing, because unlike for most countries dependent on oil or metals from international trade, there's no physical barrier to the US taking the option of turtling up. China would suffocate on its lack of oil as it tries to sip what it can through the straws it has to Russian oil fields on the other end of Eurasia if it ever had international oil shipping barred from it.

Right now you are right. But I suspect that a lot of governments are furiously at work right now to figure out to turn back globalization a bit to lower their dependence on products being manufactured far away. So I think that the equation will change to some degree and that in turn lower interdependence of countries and therefore possibly the threshold for conflicts...