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Re:Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth [pdf] (2000) by hogFeast on Thursday May 14, 2020 @04:39PM (#23185098)
Yep, that is a fairly common misunderstanding that the general public makes (and ends up with: if I just take the opposite decision then I will make money).

The main reason why 90% lose money is costs. That is it. Most people probably are optimised for losing money but the main issue is really costs/overtrading.

But related to this, most people believe that edge on profitable trades is very large...but in most markets, institutional-grade costs will still be a big chunk of your edge i.e. costs matter hugely.

Re:Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth [pdf] (2000) by Bubbadoo on Thursday May 14, 2020 @05:39PM (#23185867)
Costs? as in commissions? I haven't paid a commission in two years. Many brokers are now commission-free.
Re:Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth [pdf] (2000) by clairity on Thursday May 14, 2020 @05:59PM (#23186099)
if it's commission free, it's likely because (1) fees are baked into the quoted price, or (2) firms are buffering trades with their own holdings and making money on traders' losses. you're paying somewhere for sure.
Re:Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth [pdf] (2000) by TuringNYC on Thursday May 14, 2020 @10:22PM (#23188170)
Sort of.

The fees are baked into quoted price ("the spread") but the execution cannot be worst than the NBBO (National Best Bid Offer).

They are making money on the spread for sure, probably crossing some trades internally as well. They also make money on the margin rates.

Re:Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth [pdf] (2000) by rmrfstar on Friday May 15, 2020 @02:14AM (#23189438)
Yeah, but the NBBO moves.

You don't think it's at all strange that 80% of share volume coming out of Robinhood is sold off to broker-dealers attached to large systematic hedge funds?

I'm sure you could think of a thing or two to do with terabytes of retail trade logs and behavioral advertising data.

Re:Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth [pdf] (2000) by TuringNYC on Saturday May 16, 2020 @12:06AM (#23200411)
>> Yeah, but the NBBO moves.

The rule is that at the time of the execution, the execution cannot be worse than the NBBO.

I'm dont work at a broker dealer anymore, i'm a retail investor. I think where we are is awesome. Ten years ago, these trades cost $7 to $20 ($1 for iB) + spread.

Twenty years ago, they cost $10 to $50 + spread.

Twenty five years ago they cost $35+ + spread.

These numbers are not even inflation adjusted. In think where we are is awesome and a big win for customers.

Re:Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth [pdf] (2000) by rmrfstar on Saturday May 16, 2020 @03:53AM (#23201332)
I'm not saying things aren't better now than they were in 2000.

I'm just saying that systematic hedge funds make directional bets and hold positions overnight. These activities move the midpoint.

That is a hidden cost not visible in spreads or commissions. The SEC can't even measure that cost, only the intermediaries themselves can.