That’s assuming many things... including that countries actually shutdown. It’s also assuming the 2nd wave is bad and there’s not enough partial herd immunity to slow it down and assuming we don’t have a better treatment course or even a vaccine. Even if a vaccine is only 50% effective it would be a huge win.

While I understand the nature of your statement I also think humans and therefore markets are resilient. Many companies have pivoted to online and contactless delivery and are doing well. I’m sure there will be a loss but I’m not expecting 50%...