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Re:Being Slow to Criticise by grey-area on Monday May 11, 2020 @05:58AM (#23140471)
If it lasts long enough, a temporary natural disaster becomes an economic disaster.

I think the rough market consensus at the moment is as you state it - this is a natural disaster which will be over soon. That is a possible outcome at this point, but a second wave in the US for example would have significant impacts and cause entire industries to fall into bankruptcy - wiping out shareholders and leading to significant second-order effects on other industries and supply chains, plus causing a consumer-led recession. It seems increasingly unlikely to me that this will be over as soon as you expect. Just to pick one example - that 20-30% unemployment will not go away quickly if this is not over in the next month or two for the US and those people rehired. Companies will not rehire unless they are certain it is over.

Current recession doesn't have implications 5 years into the future

Remind me in 5 years! I don't think it will impact behaviour massively in 5 years, but I do think there is a danger this recession could trigger significant other events which have impact for more than a few years - for example unrest in the middle east after 2008 led to regime change in many countries, and ongoing war in Libya. Economic depression, unrest and wars are a common occurrence after smaller crises than this one.

When people say the market is irrational it is more to point out that the market valuation swings about the future expected returns quite wildly - for example if what you say is true, the market should not have crashed quite so strongly when coronavirus first spread then bounced back quickly again, but it did, because people panic. It does the same in the opposite direction based on incomplete or incorrect information about drugs/vaccines. There's a nice graph in the above book of the expected return from stocks (pretty much a straight line up and to the right, with small bumps on the way), and stock market valuations (massive swings around the expected return based on sentiment in that moment).

Re:Being Slow to Criticise by mewpmewp2 on Monday May 11, 2020 @06:23AM (#23140611)
How do you determine whether it was panic or just uncertainty?

It could be a rational reason for markets to swing wildly because of uncertainty about future. It might take time to gather enough data to assess the risks properly, and while risks are as unknown it is rational that market will be valued lower.

Each bit of knowledge makes uncertain a little bit less uncertain.

Re:Being Slow to Criticise by grey-area on Monday May 11, 2020 @08:56AM (#23141564)
I don't think we know enough to decide why markets swing wildly around the actual return, but that they do is demonstrable fact.
Re:Being Slow to Criticise by taffer on Monday May 11, 2020 @08:31AM (#23141363)
I haven't read the book, but do you know where the expected returns (the straight line you mention) come from?
Re:Being Slow to Criticise by grey-area on Monday May 11, 2020 @08:53AM (#23141544)
This lecture contains a similar graph on asset prices - he uses returns from the S&P for the period 1871-2013. The book really is worth a read too, it's more accessible than the lecture or slides might indicate.

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/336523/speculative-asset-pric...

https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2018/06/shiller-lecture-s...

The comparison is between the actual stock prices against the constant discount rate of subsequent real dividends.

Day to day prices are unforecastable, and it's not really understood what drives pricing in the market.

Re:Being Slow to Criticise by taffer on Monday May 11, 2020 @09:24AM (#23141829)
> The comparison is between the actual stock prices against the constant discount rate of subsequent real dividends.

The EMH states that the market incorporates all currently available information, but future dividends are known only in hindsight. Prices that fluctuate around future earnings therefore are not in conflict with efficient markets at all.

Re:Being Slow to Criticise by grey-area on Monday May 11, 2020 @03:35PM (#23146050)
I'd recommend the book if you haven't read it, I don't think my poor summaries do it justice, and it does address some of your objections from memory, and also doesn't attempt to throw out EMH, just questions whether it fully explains market behaviour.

Yes the chart compares measured return (divs) against projected return (prices) so it is not a prediction machine but I think it does illustrate well that market prices are usually far from true value.