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Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by WalterBright on Sunday May 10, 2020 @06:00PM (#23136676)
> the richest 10% of America owns 86% of its stocks

I don't buy that, as a much larger percentage of stock ownership is pension plans, where ordinary people indirectly own stock.

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by aeturnum on Sunday May 10, 2020 @06:18PM (#23136827)
The 86% number was (more or less - the article says 84%) supported by the times in 2018. Their analysis includes pension plans.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/08/business/economy/stocks-e...

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by WalterBright on Sunday May 10, 2020 @06:24PM (#23136871)
The article shows 45% of American households have a pension plan that's invested in stocks.
Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by anamexis on Sunday May 10, 2020 @06:27PM (#23136889)
Right, but:

> A whopping 84 percent of all stocks owned by Americans belong to the wealthiest 10 percent of households. And that includes everyone’s stakes in pension plans, 401(k)’s and individual retirement accounts, as well as trust funds, mutual funds and college savings programs like 529 plans.

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by ComputerGuru on Sunday May 10, 2020 @06:31PM (#23136926)
That’s entirely orthogonal though, isn’t it?
Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by sandworm101 on Sunday May 10, 2020 @07:26PM (#23137273)
No. It is comparing different things. The percentage of Americans who own stocks is different that the percentage of stocks owned by americans. Say 90% of americans "own some stock" but they are dirt poor. Their share of the total stocks available could well be 1%. The rich 10% then own 99% of the market AND 90% of the population own some stock. One fact does not negate the other.

Remember that the median income in the US is about 30k. If you have any sort of actual pension plan, there is a good chance you are in the top 10% in terms of net worth.

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by bluehex on Monday May 11, 2020 @03:01AM (#23139567)
I think you've just supported the claim that the two facts are entirely orthogonal.
Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by WalterBright on Sunday May 10, 2020 @06:32PM (#23136939)
The point is they are participating in the stock market and benefiting from its gains.
Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by aeturnum on Sunday May 10, 2020 @07:19PM (#23137221)
I mean, if 0.1% of your savings is in the market, you're "participating" in some sense, but not with any real impact. My sense is that, for the great majority of people in the United States, the stock market's value doubling would mean little for their financial health. Having a retirement fund that goes from $10,000 to $20,000 (or even $100,000 to $200,000) has a relatively small impact on the prospect of retiring [1].

[1] Depends on circumstance, but people are generally supposed to have at least $1,000,000 in savings by 67. https://www.nerdwallet.com/investing/retirement-calculator

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by WalterBright on Sunday May 10, 2020 @08:47PM (#23137768)
> if 0.1% of your savings is in the market

That means you chose not to participate in the market, not that you were prevented. In which case I can't accept grousing about not getting the gains from investing in the market.

> retirement-calculator

Use it. It'll show how much you need to invest monthly to retire a millionaire. Your money will do a lot better than double.

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by callalex on Monday May 11, 2020 @01:44AM (#23139217)
>That means you _chose_ not to participate in the market

You can’t invest money you don’t have.

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by WalterBright on Monday May 11, 2020 @05:05AM (#23140202)
May I suggest examining "if 0.1% of your savings is in the market" again? Like what happened with the other 99.9% of your savings?
Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by aeturnum on Monday May 11, 2020 @12:55PM (#23144260)
Asking about the other 99.9% is a good point! Mostly I was pointing out how meaningless the idea of "participating" is for evaluating the material impact of the market on an individuals' financial wellbeing.

We can go back and forth about how theoretical people could invest theoretical savings, but unless you have another source, it seems like the reality we live in is one where 90% of the country share 16% of the stock market. Whether that 90% have low savings (all of which are in the market) or better savings (little of which is in the market) - either way their financial health doesn't seem very tied to the market.

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by WalterBright on Monday May 11, 2020 @03:44PM (#23146141)
The people who do invest in the market are providing the money that drives jobs and economic growth.

You can't separate the two.

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by aeturnum on Monday May 11, 2020 @04:38PM (#23146754)
Why can't you?

The vast majority of businesses are privately held[1]. Those businesses hire most of the people and buy most of the goods. Even for companies that are listed on the markets, the majority of their financial assets come from doing business.

It's true that companies raise money on the public markets to expand and thus hire more people, but the idea that most economic activity happens there is false.

[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/sageworks/2012/10/01/private-co...

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by WalterBright on Tuesday May 12, 2020 @01:06AM (#23150749)
Big business doesn't work without a stock market, and big business is the engine that drives an economy.

Small businesses are the future big businesses.

Both are needed for an efficient, productive economy.

Various times countries have tried to prevent big business from operating, and always gave it up after a while.

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by justin66 on Monday May 11, 2020 @09:58AM (#23142198)
Without sperging out about the specific percentage: a situation where people have a tiny amount saved for retirement, and almost all their net worth in a house and car, is actually quite common.
Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by WalterBright on Monday May 11, 2020 @03:43PM (#23146125)
Spending on a car is not an investment. It's no joke that a new car loses 30% of its value when you drive it off the lot. Essentially all cars lose value constantly, and that's not even counting the finance costs.
Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by justin66 on Monday May 11, 2020 @04:01PM (#23146328)
I couldn't agree more. Just trying to explain the situation of someone's pension accounting for such a small portion of their net worth. It's sadly common.
Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by chii on Monday May 11, 2020 @01:58AM (#23139266)
> you're "participating" in some sense, but not with any real impact

just like voting has no real "impact" right?

Participating has an impact. The impact may not be as big as you'd want, but it's there. and it's better than not participating.

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by aeturnum on Monday May 11, 2020 @01:03PM (#23144351)
I agree that participating is always better than not, but I think you're making an inappropriate comparison. The question I was trying to talk about is the connection of the market to the wealth of most americans. I'm saying that it's fully possible for everyone to "participate" in the market without significantly benefiting from it (though, as you say, it's better than nothing). If the market were to double in value, mostly wealthy people would get wealthier and, I think, few middle and working class people would have their lives changed significantly.

The reason I don't think the voting metaphor holds up is that everyone who's elected does so by "getting" the most votes. Obviously there are forces at work here (turnout, voter suppression, get out the vote efforts, etc), but there's no official alternative way to be elected. The voting comparison would make sense if the stock market was the only possible way to gain money - in which case I would agree! But it's not. There are lots of other ways we can ensure people gain wealth.

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by ComputerGuru on Sunday May 10, 2020 @06:34PM (#23136957)
That’s true. I suppose there’s not much else they/we can do and the 86% represents the status quo even after their efforts.
Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by ahoy on Sunday May 10, 2020 @06:24PM (#23136865)
You greatly overestimate how many americans have pension plans and underestimate how rich the richest americans are
Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by erik_seaberg on Sunday May 10, 2020 @06:28PM (#23136896)
It's mostly the latter. Looks like 32% have 401(k) plans and 13% have pensions. They may not have a big share of the total market cap, but a stock market crash would blow up a lot of retirement planning.
Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by listenallyall on Sunday May 10, 2020 @07:06PM (#23137148)
>> a stock market crash would blow up a lot of retirement planning

The low interest rates we've experienced over the last decade, which have only gotten lower as of late, have actually blown up retirement plans.

Used to be, $500,000 saved at 8% meant you could retire off the $40k interest + social security. It also meant that growing a savings account into $500,000 was not out of reach, even on a modest income. This was the plan many people in the 60's, 70's, 80's worked towards.

Now, getting to $500k in savings is much more difficult as compound interest is so much lower. And if you happened to get there, you'd earn a whopping $5000, maybe less, in interest per year.

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by legolas2412 on Sunday May 10, 2020 @07:41PM (#23137352)
Wow, never considered how a stagnating economy will hurt retirement. This was eye opening in terms of numbers
Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by eanzenberg on Sunday May 10, 2020 @07:44PM (#23137366)
Which is a good thing to me. I’d rather people “work” to earn rather than easily collecting rent through interest. Work in quotes since applying capital in risky investments is work compared to stashing money in an interest bearing account.
Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by listenallyall on Sunday May 10, 2020 @08:06PM (#23137511)
What? Putting money in an index fund, or buying Apple stock, or a 401k, is "work"? Companies don't even get the money from secondary stock purchases, so the invested money is doing absolutely nothing.

Banks use deposits to create loans whose funds go directly to the companies receiving those loans. Banks which interview the loan applicants, review financials, ask for references, and which themselves tend to be pillars of the community (before the proliferation of national banks) and have a vested interest in helping it to thrive.

So, no, your premise is 180 degrees wrong. Savers were once paid high interest rates precisely because their dollars were necessary to directly fund risky investments like a new business or expansion. The bank's function was to determine high vs low risk and allocate depositors' money efficiently. Meanwhile, buying an index fund or Amazon stock and having a few irrelevant proxy votes on decisions already made, is the definition of "stashing" it away with zero utility.

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by chii on Monday May 11, 2020 @02:07AM (#23139309)
> buying an index fund or Amazon stock and having a few irrelevant proxy votes on decisions already made, is the definition of "stashing" it away with zero utility.

that's absolutely not true.

The buying stocks (or indirectly via index funds) must mean somebody else is selling.

The person who sold the stocks will put the money obtained from the sale to use somewhere else. It moves capital just like any other economic transaction.

It may be that the seller will "just" buy another stock - and it looks like nothing's changed. But eventually a seller down the chain is either going to invest in something other than stocks (e.g., a bond), buy new IPO stocks, or to consume the money (e.g., retiree selling stocks to fund their living cost).

The problem with banks doing loaning is that they have to be conservative. They cannot loan out money that might not return - since they must return their depositor's money.

Investors, on the other hand, do not have this conservatism (for the right price). That's why stocks exist, and that's why bonds exist (for those willing to risk less than stocks).

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by listenallyall on Monday May 11, 2020 @07:08AM (#23140869)
Yes, obviously, stock markets are essential and efficient capital allocators, in aggregate. Perhaps I shouldn't have simplified. But a single retiree's $500k purchase of some megacorp's stock will have effectively zero impact, like a drop in the ocean. As you say, it's up to someone "eventually down the chain" to actually deploy the capital. Investing in an index fund adds even more layers. In contrast, a community bank deposit will get multiplied and quickly deployed directly to local businesses or homeowners.

The point being, `eanzenberg`'s idea that money in a savings account just sits there idly doing nothing, is false.

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by chii on Monday May 11, 2020 @10:40AM (#23142617)
i would argue that money invested in stock market has an even higher investment velocity than a bank deposit.

after all, a bank cannot invest in risky assets. "eventually down the chain [of stock investments]" is very fast in terms of timing, and i guarantee you it is faster than a bank's loan process for small businesses.

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by aianus on Sunday May 10, 2020 @08:26PM (#23137632)
> Companies don't even get the money from secondary stock purchases, so the invested money is doing absolutely nothing.

There would be no IPO market without a secondary market. Almost nobody is interested in buying a stock at IPO and holding it forever without being able to sell it.

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by javagram on Sunday May 10, 2020 @09:43PM (#23138102)
> Companies don't even get the money from secondary stock purchases, so the invested money is doing absolutely nothing.

But they can issue new stock at the inflated values to fund expansion, which itself allows the company to grow profits and potentially grow future dividends. E.g. Tesla stock price quadrupled over the last year and then Tesla issued $2 billion worth of new shares in February.

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by eanzenberg on Sunday May 10, 2020 @10:59PM (#23138500)
Putting capital in risky investments is “work”. Expecting a 7% guarantee return on capital is rent-seeking. There is a difference.
Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by jjoonathan on Sunday May 10, 2020 @08:05PM (#23137503)
Just as much rent is getting collected, but it's going straight to the top rather than into retirement plans.
Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by jkhdigital on Sunday May 10, 2020 @08:42PM (#23137728)
I think you would benefit from a course in how capital markets work.
Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by nostrademons on Sunday May 10, 2020 @07:55PM (#23137442)
Also shows why having everybody "earn" a living off interest & investment income isn't feasible - if everybody's doing that, nobody's doing the work that generates the cash to pay the interest in the first place.

The best you could hope for is a younger generation of increasingly productive new workers being able to spin off enough profits to provide a return on the capital that generated that productivity. But the demographic time-bomb of relatively few Homelanders supporting relatively many Baby Boomers is going to upend that, and the stagnating productivity of the last couple decades isn't going to help.

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by notJim on Sunday May 10, 2020 @06:24PM (#23136868)
If you want to dig into this more, this paper has a lot of tables about wealth holdings (and what forms those holdings take) over time and at different strata https://www.nber.org/papers/w24085.

Edit: I think this is the relevant table: https://i.imgur.com/h8Fo8yx.png. If I'm reading it right, this is likely the source of that 84% number. Note the line "Stocks, directly indirectly owned", and the note that it includes retirement plans. I'm guessing this also includes pensions, since that would be a retirement plan. There are many interesting tables in this paper, however.

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by anonytrary on Sunday May 10, 2020 @08:31PM (#23137659)
I would bet that the majority of Americans do not even have 401k plans or pension plans, and those that do have very little money allocated in them.
Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by WalterBright on Sunday May 10, 2020 @08:48PM (#23137776)
> I would bet that the majority of Americans

No need to guess. Google is just a quick click away!

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by anonytrary on Sunday May 10, 2020 @10:25PM (#23138320)
That's my point -- this is something that doesn't even have to be Googled!
Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by WalterBright on Monday May 11, 2020 @05:11AM (#23140244)
I'd be careful about that. A lot of popular internet economic theories get holed below the waterline with simple google searches.
Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by anonytrary on Tuesday May 12, 2020 @09:42PM (#23162503)
Hehe, of course you're right! To be a responsible internet user...
Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by wnevets on Sunday May 10, 2020 @07:43PM (#23137361)
>pension plans,

is that still thing for the average american?

Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by WalterBright on Sunday May 10, 2020 @08:48PM (#23137780)
45% of households have a pension plan.
Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by tezzer on Sunday May 10, 2020 @11:18PM (#23138597)
22% of workers, 13% of private sector workers, and falling.
Re:Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? by wnevets on Monday May 11, 2020 @12:05PM (#23143577)
I probably should have specific average american worker. Retirees aren't important in this context.