Re:Coronavirus: Germany infection rate rises as lockdown eases
by corty on Sunday May 10, 2020 @10:48AM
(#23133020)
R_0 is always above 1, or the virus wouldn't even exist in the first place. You mean R_eff
Re:Coronavirus: Germany infection rate rises as lockdown eases
by baobabKoodaa on Sunday May 10, 2020 @08:18PM
(#23137575)
You have misunderstood what R0 and R_effective mean. R0 certainly can, and often does, go below 1. The only difference between R0 and R_effective is that R0 assumes everyone in the population is suaceptible to the virus.
Re:Coronavirus: Germany infection rate rises as lockdown eases
by moduspol on Sunday May 10, 2020 @10:51AM
(#23133044)
It won't if we reach herd immunity, which is when this will end regardless of containment attempts.
Re:Coronavirus: Germany infection rate rises as lockdown eases
by KarlKemp on Sunday May 10, 2020 @11:14AM
(#23133240)
I’m amazed how this idea seems to endure, even in the face of dozens of countries showing reductions of 90%+ (Italy, Spain, Germany, Austria, Australia, Switzerland, Iceland, Norway, South Korea, France, etc) or even complete elimination (China, NZ).
Just because the US and UK can’t get their act together doesn’t mean it’s impossible.
Re:Coronavirus: Germany infection rate rises as lockdown eases
by moduspol on Sunday May 10, 2020 @11:19AM
(#23133281)
It's not over until those countries' policies are back to how they were prior to the outbreak (borders open, travel allowed, no lockdowns). Until then, it's just hoping for the best for when they do.
Re:Coronavirus: Germany infection rate rises as lockdown eases
by tinus_hn on Sunday May 10, 2020 @07:20PM
(#23137238)
Unfortunately this requires either indefinite lockdowns or indefinite suspension of international travel. What’s the point of eliminating 90% of infections if that remaining 10% is going to develop into a new outbreak?
China is still finding new cases so it isn’t eliminated. New Zealand can keep the virus out because it’s an island (but they better be prepared to live without tourism).
It’s all just not very sustainable.
Re:Coronavirus: Germany infection rate rises as lockdown eases
by baobabKoodaa on Sunday May 10, 2020 @08:20PM
(#23137586)
If you have efficient testing, contact tracing and quarantine measures in place, you may be able to quell any resurfacing outbreaks.
It eventually will be if R0 is greater 1.0. The government's position is that it needs to stay below one. The official metric to that effect is the number of new infections per 100,000 people. If it crosses above 50 for any administrative district, lockdown measures ought to be tightened. As of today, there are four above that threshold.