Re:Getting Back to Work
by ben_w on Sunday May 10, 2020 @06:35AM
(#23131611)
I think that’s the point of having a brain at all — to predict the future better than a dice roll would’ve.
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I wouldn't call guessing with slightly better odds than a coin flip "extrapolating the future".
Do continue ignoring all the massive failures and continuous capital / opportunity these supposed kingmakers have.
If two chess players of equal skill play a match, the result is a coin flip. That doesn’t mean they don’t know what they’re doing.
With one exception that I know of, share prices are the average over all estimates of future earnings.
The exception is: When investors just follow the leader instead of producing their own price estimates, you get bubbles.
> If two chess players of equal skill play a match, the result is a coin flip. That doesn’t mean they don’t know what they’re doing.
No, but it does mean they aren't any more skilled than anyone else on the same level. They surely cannot know what will happen next any better.