> If two chess players of equal skill play a match, the result is a coin flip. That doesn’t mean they don’t know what they’re doing.
No, but it does mean they aren't any more skilled than anyone else on the same level. They surely cannot know what will happen next any better.
With one exception that I know of, share prices are the average over all estimates of future earnings.
The exception is: When investors just follow the leader instead of producing their own price estimates, you get bubbles.