I'm not sure you're considering how fickle riders are. I work in a (what used to be) high travel group of tech. Most all of my peers and I are heavy rideshare users. Honestly, we don't care who the app owner is, but want the rides to be consistent and reliable. None of my peers is tied to Lyft or Uber, even with promotions and "status" gimmicks. If a ride can show up 3 minutes faster on Lyft - I'm taking that over Uber. To say the consumers are in Uber's pocket is ill informed. If you're taking hundreds or thousands of rides a year and aren't paying for any of those rides - the ride share company has little to no bearing on your choice. It's not like flying an airline where there's significant advantages to reap.

You are discounting the difficulty of getting typical consumers (not "high travel group of tech") to install a 3rd, 4th, 5th app to perform the same function that Uber and Lyft already do. And when you are in a hurry, you might check 2 apps, but will you check and compare 5?

Yeah, I got my parents to start using Uber. They are not very technologically literate and could definitely not be bothered to download a new app to save 10%.

But it isn't 10% - it's probably closer to 50%.

The car is $30-50k with a lifetime of what, 10 years?

The driver needs to earn $40k/yr.

The vast majority of the cost is the driver - insurance and fuel are next, ultimately followed by vehicle capex and maintenance.

Also don't underestimate the amount of local news coverage the driverless taxi will get - combined with the "there's no rude, smelly person driving me".

I think you're severely overestimating your case, not to mention the cost will probably be determined by a multitude of factors, one of the big ones being how advanced the self-driving tech is. Most of your points are just theoretical anecdotes.

You're not counting the RD cost that needs to be recouped. You're overestimating the trust people will have with "oh didn't that once kill a person"-autopilot will have.

> not to mention the cost will probably be determined by a multitude of factors,

yes of course, but i included the big ones.

>You're not counting the RD cost that needs to be recouped.

Majority will be sunk costs by the time anyone is making money. But obviously, they will charge what the market will bear - but the margin improvement vs driven vehicles will be very significant.

The first robotaxi fleet be able to put any driver-based taxi company out of business simply by undercutting on price for as long as it takes. The only enemy is time to build that base - but the first company to successfully bring a robotaxi to market will necessarily have absurdly deep pockets because they invested the R&D necessary to build something that drives itself. If someone has a robotaxi that isn't Uber, Uber is going to be in very big trouble.

Also, I'm not really invested because I don't care - but it's really hard to overestimate the implications this has to the cost of (non-mass) transportation.

I worked directly in the space and I can tell you you're overestimating your "persona"s portion on the market. Also, why so you think that car is arriving faster for you on another app?

They're running more bonuses at timeframe, e.g. it's more costly.

The airline example is great. Because that's exactly the direction ridehailing is going. Just look at Uber rewards. At least with an airline you actually book weeks in advance. With ridehailing you're buying super close to the actual event.

Beieeve me, Uber has done one thing well and that's consumer ToM..

I often hear people say ubers tend to be easier/faster to get than lyfts.

When I visited Japan last year, I wasn't going to bother finding out what competitors existed. Just firing up the uber app is no-brainer in comparison.

This is similar to the dichotomy of McDonald's being almost universally considered bad junk food, yet they are packed in roadside locations in small towns because they are popular rest areas among travellers whereas local mom-and-pop competitors are far less successful. Brand is a powerful thing.

I used to work for Thoughtworks and I just used Lyft all the time. I’m not going to look at both apps wasting time basically comparing prices. Definitely not just to save three minutes. I think this kind of thinking, is a very small minority, they probably all read HN too, am I right?

I don’t use Uber cus of ideological reasons. A lot of people, even in this community, are the same.

> I don’t use Uber cus of ideological reasons. A lot of people, even in this community, are the same.

Uber/Lyft marketshare in all US markets tell another story. This community is a small echo chamber and thus rather uninformed.

Yeah, you’re right. I see what you’re saying.

I even forgot what my ideological reason was, something about them stealing tips.

I still don’t think riders are fickle like that, comparing prices amongst multiple ride share app and uninterested in promotions. I think people pick one and stick with it, more out of habit that anything else, not likely to change unless something crazy happens

I was all on Uber until they had some old controversy that I totally forgot about, but I’m not going to use it again, not for something as small as saving a couple dollars or a few minutes time difference

Businesses are a function of supply and demand

But most evidence is pointing to the chicken-egg game starting from the demand side :)