News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:U.S. field hospitals stand down, most without treating an... by lostlogin on Friday May 08, 2020 @03:08PM (#23118269)
The article says:

“Imperial College London’s Neil Ferguson has said, as many of two-thirds of 'Covid deaths' would have happened anyway”

Would these deaths have happened in a massive spike? If not, then it isn’t anything like the same and if so, why?

Re:U.S. field hospitals stand down, most without treating an... by marcell on Friday May 08, 2020 @03:22PM (#23118416)
The implication is they would have died soon, like in the next 6 months.

About half of Covid deaths are in nursing homes. The median lifespan after entering a nursing home is 5 months, and the mean is 13 months.

Coronavirus is very infectious, so if it enters a nursing home, it could easily spread and wipe out everyone who was on the brink of dearth, or on a fragile state.

Re:U.S. field hospitals stand down, most without treating an... by lukas099 on Friday May 08, 2020 @05:01PM (#23119423)
According to The Economist, the average lifetime lost per covid death is over 10 years.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/02/would-mo...

Re:U.S. field hospitals stand down, most without treating an... by marcell on Friday May 08, 2020 @05:18PM (#23119586)
Well, it's worth keeping in mind that the risk of death from a coronavirus infection is comparable to the annual risk of death from all causes. Coronavirus infection though is a once per lifetime risk, whereas all-cause mortality occurs every year.

Just as a random comparable, the annual risk of getting cancer if you're 35 years old is around 0.1%, and the annual risk of having a heart attack is around 0.5% (higher for men, lower for women). All of those diseases would have similar average lifetime lost as covid, but the risk is continuous, not a once per lifetime occurance.

Re:U.S. field hospitals stand down, most without treating an... by easytiger on Saturday May 09, 2020 @09:25AM (#23124508)
Sounds like they took the life expectancy of certain age groups without taking into account individual preexisting conditions whatsoever.
Re:U.S. field hospitals stand down, most without treating an... by lukas099 on Sunday May 17, 2020 @11:36PM (#23218058)
Not according to the article: "Then the authors accounted for other illnesses the victims had, in case they were unusually frail for their age."
Re:U.S. field hospitals stand down, most without treating an... by sesutton on Friday May 08, 2020 @03:19PM (#23118384)
Presumably he means they would've happened in the same time period otherwise it's a meaningless statement. On a long enough timescale everyone who died of Covid would've died anyway.
Re:U.S. field hospitals stand down, most without treating an... by dboreham on Friday May 08, 2020 @03:37PM (#23118588)
Whether it's meaningless depends on the timescale. For zero months its very meaningful while for infinity months it's completely meaningless. And in-between it's meaningful, e.g. they would have died in the next 12 months.