Re:New Zealand PM: No open borders for 'a long time'
by iso947 on Wednesday May 06, 2020 @08:02PM
(#23098009)
UK publishes weekly statistics of total deaths, including those mentioning covid on the death certificate and the number of excess deaths above the 5 year average for that week. The figures are a few weeks behind though.
This gives a number of covid deaths at 40-80k, and thus an infection of 3-15 million depending on the actual fatality rate.
That means letting it run free, assuming immunity once you have it, and a 65% herd immunity level, would mean at least another 100k deaths and possibly as high as 1 million. Most likely 250k more. There is no appetite in the UK currently for that.
This gives a number of covid deaths at 40-80k, and thus an infection of 3-15 million depending on the actual fatality rate.
That means letting it run free, assuming immunity once you have it, and a 65% herd immunity level, would mean at least another 100k deaths and possibly as high as 1 million. Most likely 250k more. There is no appetite in the UK currently for that.