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Re:Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition [pdf] by 0xdeadbeefbabe on Wednesday May 06, 2020 @04:56PM (#23096193)
What are the chances a good foundation in modern bayesian analysis will pay off?

I feel like I won't be able to answer with satisfaction till I have a good foundation...

Re:Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition [pdf] by ssivark on Wednesday May 06, 2020 @06:01PM (#23096849)
I think a good conceptual foundation is the difference between someone who throws buzzword solutions at a problem to see what sticks, and someone who can make a good tweak to get working a standard-ish idea that doesn’t quite work out of the box. Without understanding these concepts it is easy to get stuck spinning in loops on a complicated problem — where tweaking to improve one thing messes with another thing.

I won’t claim Bayesian is the only conceptual framework, but I found it particularly intuitive and straightforward — and gives you a lot of flexibility. Refer an earlier discussion on Bayesian approaches a few days ago.