Re:Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market
by underanalyzer on Sunday May 03, 2020 @03:22AM
(#23057444)
Afaik the 1/e solution is only optimal when you don't know anything about the distribution being draw from (but also why it's amazing). Since the author knows the probability distribution the prices are being draw from you can do much better with a little dynamic programming.
Re:Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market
by dmurray on Sunday May 03, 2020 @04:53AM
(#23057810)
It's also solving a different problem: it maximises the when probability that you get the absolute best match, rather than maximising the expected value of your choice.
Re:Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market
by ISL on Sunday May 03, 2020 @10:21AM
(#23059144)
Furthermore, I suspect it requires that each measurement is independent and identically-distributed.
If your measurements are correlated (as prices generally are -- if they were lower than average yesterday, they are more likely to be lower than average today), the secretary-problem approach will not work.
Re:Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market
by scast on Sunday May 03, 2020 @06:47AM
(#23058200)
Yes, exactly. I was looking to solve the second problem, not the former. Following the secretary rule is good strategy for a lot of things, but I think we actually have more information here.
Re:Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market
by scast on Sunday May 03, 2020 @06:45AM
(#23058193)
Hey there, author here.
I am not super well versed on the secretary problem but I think some people have already looked into it for AC [1].
In general, what I was looking was to associate a risk profile to a series of decisions of either HOLD or SELL(amount) given the current probability distribution.
[1]: https://www.reddit.com/r/GAMETHEORY/comments/fn2grx/optimizi...
Re:Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market
by palmerlao on Sunday May 03, 2020 @01:36AM
(#23057082)
I think something like backward induction could be used here to find a lower-regret but probably more complicated strategy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backward_induction
Generally, the 1/e rule in this situation implies you should evaluate prices until Wednesday afternoon for the max sell price up to that point, and then sell the next time you see a price higher than that max (or Saturday afternoon whichever comes first). You won't always get the best price this way, but you'll perform better than any other know strategy. This strategy works with friends, too, as you can account for their prices in this strategy.
The only reason this may not be the best strategy here is that there are ways of having some information about future prices.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary_problem [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimal_stopping