News for hackers. Stuff that matters.

A comment on Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market. Parent comment

Re:Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market by dmurray on Sunday May 03, 2020 @04:53AM (#23057810)
It's also solving a different problem: it maximises the when probability that you get the absolute best match, rather than maximising the expected value of your choice.
[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market by ISL on Sunday May 03, 2020 @10:21AM (#23059144)
Furthermore, I suspect it requires that each measurement is independent and identically-distributed.

If your measurements are correlated (as prices generally are -- if they were lower than average yesterday, they are more likely to be lower than average today), the secretary-problem approach will not work.

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market by scast on Sunday May 03, 2020 @06:47AM (#23058200)
Yes, exactly. I was looking to solve the second problem, not the former. Following the secretary rule is good strategy for a lot of things, but I think we actually have more information here.
[ Parent | on HN ]