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A comment on The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May. Parent comment

Re:The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is bein... by mmmBacon on Monday April 27, 2020 @09:56PM (#23002523)
Community spread of zero is not the goal. The goal is to get the transmission rate below 1. A transmission rate of 1 means no average 1 person infects 1 other person. You need a transmission rate below 1 to start reducing the rate of new infections. Above 1, you have exponential growth. Right now we are hovering around 0.9. To reopen we need a rate of about 0.75. For comparison the lockdowns in Wuhan achieved a rate of 0.3.
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Re:The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is bein... by adrr on Monday April 27, 2020 @11:38PM (#23003084)
Wuhan is a good example why community spread of near 0 is the primary goal. The restaurants have opened but are struggling because people are still afraid of getting sick and have changed their behavior.

White collar jobs will keep telecommuting if there’s a risk of community spread. No hr/leg department wants the liability. The secondary effects are decrease in demand on automobile related businesses like gas stations, servicing. Also decrease in car sales. Also the company ban on business travel which hits airlines, hotels, conferences etc.

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Re:The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is bein... by SpicyLemonZest on Tuesday April 28, 2020 @01:39AM (#23003776)
I don't follow the example. If people in Wuhan are still avoiding restaurants, it can't be because they haven't reduced community spread enough - the city's reported no new cases for weeks.
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Re:The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is bein... by smcameron on Tuesday April 28, 2020 @02:45AM (#23004172)
It's because people are afraid. Fear is not perfectly rational.
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Re:The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is bein... by SpicyLemonZest on Tuesday April 28, 2020 @10:40AM (#23007423)
That's my point. Wuhan demonstrates that reducing community spread to 0 has nothing to do with restoring confidence or reducing fear. In a year, I expect the regions aiming for 0 community spread will still be devastated, because they've taught their populace that the coronavirus is the worst thing ever and they must be constantly scared of it.
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