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A comment on In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms. Parent comment

Re:In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% w... by arcticbull on Saturday April 25, 2020 @07:24PM (#22982572)
The virus affects young and healthy folks without co-morbidities dramatically less than it does old folks at a nursing home. Based on New York City data, people without co-morbidities account for something like 6% of hospitalizations [1]. Old folks on a cruise ship full of old people, about 20% showed no symptoms. Is it a big stretch to think that scales to prisoners as shown? They're pretty young (only 2.8% of prisoners are over 65 [2]), and therefore pretty unlikely to show symptoms let alone require medical care. Age is unquestionably the biggest factor in outcomes for COVID [3].

"Asymptomatic" is kind of a sliding scale. Are you sick? No. Do you have a stuffy nose? Kinda.

[1] https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/nearly-all-nyc-ar...

[2] https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_age.j...

[3] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% w... by ancientworldnow on Saturday April 25, 2020 @08:01PM (#22982817)
Over 40% of Americans have comorbidities (hypertension and obesity being most common) so that stat is not particularly useful.
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Re:In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% w... by badfrog on Saturday April 25, 2020 @09:41PM (#22983487)
42.4% of Americans are obese: https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/articles/...

When you add in all the other things that count as comorbidities here, you're probably looking at like 75%.

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Re:In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% w... by bshanks on Sunday April 26, 2020 @03:53AM (#22985392)
To add to your point, here is a paper with data on this:

https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/issue-brief/how-man...

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Re:In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% w... by superkuh on Saturday April 25, 2020 @08:43PM (#22983108)
If a virus is spreading in a community exponentially and the latency from exposure/infection to symptoms is greater in length than the doubling time then half of everyone who tests positive is going to be pre-symptomatic.
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Re:In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% w... by Bnshsysjab on Saturday April 25, 2020 @07:59PM (#22982797)
Wouldn’t prisons disproportionately have poorer health than average for several reasons?
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Re:In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% w... by briandear on Saturday April 25, 2020 @08:02PM (#22982823)
Is there data on that? Or is it an assumption?
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Re:In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% w... by arcticbull on Saturday April 25, 2020 @08:17PM (#22982922)
There's plenty of data indicating that's the case, for instance [1]. That said, the population is also much younger and age has a much bigger impact than comorbidities.

[1] https://issues.org/correctional-health-is-community-health/

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Re:In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% w... by keeganpoppen on Saturday April 25, 2020 @08:22PM (#22982961)
surely there are data. "assumptions" underlie all "data"[1], but i would call "prisoners not having good health care" a pretty decent assumption. if you're so curious, maybe go google it yourself, and then post a study if you find one.

i'm so tired of literally every other HN comment being like this. there is truly nothing more low effort / "i am very smart" than the HN-classic "do you have a source for that? where's the peer-reviewed study?". it adds absolutely nothing to the discussion, and yet i see all sorts of materially less obnoxious things be downvoted to oblivion.

[1] "citation needed"

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Re:In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% w... by greedo on Saturday April 25, 2020 @08:39PM (#22983073)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2661478/
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Re:In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% w... by peteretep on Saturday April 25, 2020 @09:27PM (#22983410)
Basic healthcare in prison is free (I believe?), and I reckon the food is comparatively less likely to give you diabetes?
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Re:In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% w... by greedo on Sunday April 26, 2020 @01:20AM (#22984701)
Healthcare may be "free" but that doesn't mean it's any good.
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Re:In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% w... by arcticbull on Saturday April 25, 2020 @11:35PM (#22984175)
One would suspect, but one would be wrong. The data bears this out but also food that's bad for you tends to be cheaper than food that's good for you and Bureau of Prisons isn't known for doting upon its charges.
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Re:In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% w... by Bnshsysjab on Sunday April 26, 2020 @06:16PM (#22990754)
Even then I imagine the financially and socially disadvantaged would be more likely to end up in jail, who are unlikely to be in good health to begin with.
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Re:In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% w... by pastablister on Saturday April 25, 2020 @07:42PM (#22982668)
Perfect, sounds like a good experiment then, so let's wait and see.
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