Keyword "up to".

The most common fatal case seems to be roughly: 1 week without symptoms, 1 week of mild symptoms, 1 week of severe symptoms, death. That's 3 weeks.

In rare (1/10000) cases, incubation time can reach 14 days, that's where the 14 days quarantine recommendation comes from. But the median is closer to 5 days.

Time to death can be much longer, the virus can cause all sorts of damage to the body, including secondary infections. And if the patient is strong enough to resist the primary infection but not enough to recover, it can take a long time.

> In rare (1/10000) cases, incubation time can reach 14 days

What's the cite for that number? I'd be very suspicious of anything claiming a 5-significant-figure result in a disease that has only (heh) 3M known cases.

In fact there's significant supposition that the incubation time and asymptomatic contagious state can last much longer than originally guessed. This would go a long way to explaining the difficulty of detecting early outbreaks (basically nowhere in the world was able to contain before community spread was happening) and the anomalously low rate of new case decline post-peak. But there's no good science on this, and probably won't be in time for it to be useful.

> What's the cite for that number? I'd be very suspicious of anything claiming a 5-significant-figure result in a disease that has only (heh) 3M known cases.

You are totally right about that. I misinterpreted the following paper https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32150748

The actual number is more like 1/100. The 1/10000 number is the probability for someone who has a 1/100 chance of being infected to develop symptoms after 14 days.

Uhm... too late to fix my original post, sorry.

South Korea had a very rapid decline post peak. 1062 cases on 2/29 to 114 cases on 3/11. With an average of just under 10 cases per day for the last week.

Also, the number I have seen was ~1% of cases where asymptotic for 14 days. https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/03/09/coronavirus-incubation-period...

Do note that rapid decline in the day-to-day increase of case numbers is not necessarily indicative of rapid decline in transmission rate. Transmission rate could have declined gradually over the course of a week or more, and the rapid decline in day-to-day increase of case numbers could have just been detection catching up with existing infections.

Their daily testing was reasonably consistent over that time period. So, their is some wiggle room, but it’s at minimum a 80% drop over 2 weeks. Compared to the US where daily numbers are steady for weeks with the last two days having the greatest number of detected cases.

I've given up on the USA numbers. There is no way an underlying exponential process is going to deliver you a near constant 30K new infections for nearly 4 straight weeks.

Something else is driving those numbers, and it ain't the actual number of new infections. For me the obvious candidate is they hits some testing limit.

You shouldn't think of it as one underlying exponential process though. It could be many overlapping and time-delayed S-curve type graphs which are additively causing a constant rate of infections.

Although it's also most certainly true that we're vastly undercounting the cases in most (if not all) areas.

Only if you develop a severe case in the first place, which you would know about within 2 weeks average. Incubation on average is 3-5 days, severe symptoms then start in the second week.

After you're hospitalized, yes you might or might not then have a month long battle for survival.

Median of 10 days though.

Numbers I have seen where median 5.1 days from exposure to first symptoms and a median of 8 days from first symptoms to death in Italy. So, a median of ~2 weeks from exposure to death. https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/03/09/coronavirus-incubation-period... https://www.lastampa.it/esteri/la-stampa-in-english/2020/03/...

However, early estimates are going to be biased without the slowest fatalities. Further, that’s also population specific.

The South Korean data suggests there is a long tail on the death rate. It seems the very old and ill die quickly, but those that are healthier it can take a month or more to die.

There is definitely a lot of evidence that people who test positive will eventually die. It might take 50-100 years, and they might die of something else, but yes they will definitely die. Plenty of evidence of that.

But seriously, what is this evidence you speak of?

I find your joke to be in poor taste.

Wow. Just wow.