In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

Re:In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% w... by _-___________-_ on Sunday April 26, 2020 @03:27AM (#22985295)

Do note that rapid decline in the day-to-day increase of case numbers is not necessarily indicative of rapid decline in transmission rate. Transmission rate could have declined gradually over the course of a week or more, and the rapid decline in day-to-day increase of case numbers could have just been detection catching up with existing infections.

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Re:In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% w... by Retric on Sunday April 26, 2020 @09:37AM (#22987043)

Their daily testing was reasonably consistent over that time period. So, their is some wiggle room, but it’s at minimum a 80% drop over 2 weeks. Compared to the US where daily numbers are steady for weeks with the last two days having the greatest number of detected cases.

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Re:In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% w... by rstuart4133 on Sunday April 26, 2020 @07:39PM (#22991335)

I've given up on the USA numbers. There is no way an underlying exponential process is going to deliver you a near constant 30K new infections for nearly 4 straight weeks.

Something else is driving those numbers, and it ain't the actual number of new infections. For me the obvious candidate is they hits some testing limit.

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Re:In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% w... by pashamur on Monday April 27, 2020 @10:32AM (#22996156)

You shouldn't think of it as one underlying exponential process though. It could be many overlapping and time-delayed S-curve type graphs which are additively causing a constant rate of infections.

Although it's also most certainly true that we're vastly undercounting the cases in most (if not all) areas.

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