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Re:Sweden to shut bars and restaurants that ignore coronavir... by belorn on Friday April 24, 2020 @11:48AM (#22969288)
Alternative one can see it as they first tried the carrot, and now when there is sign that some people did not get the message they are using the stick.

It should be noted that this is just the capital, which currently has something like 10x infection compared to most other areas of Sweden, and almost 20x the number of dead. To give some number, Stockholm has in the latest report 7k infected and 1200 dead. Malmö (or rather the region around it), which is Sweden third largest city, has 600 infected and 60 dead. Population wise, Stockholm has about 2x compared to Malmö.

People are not sure why stockholm has the number it has compared to other regions.

Re:Sweden to shut bars and restaurants that ignore coronavir... by tapland on Friday April 24, 2020 @12:06PM (#22969541)
In Malmö you have no (proper) metro. The Stockholm metro had about 800k trips per day iirc.

IF you work in Stockholm you probably commute by commuter train and or bus into the city, where in Malmö you can walk through the city center in 15 minutes so biking or owning a car to commute with is the norm.

In Malmö most stores close at 5pm, and malls much earlier than in Stockholm so they are visited on weekends instead of whenever (this also sucks since there is nothing to do after work), FNM starts at something like 15:30.

It's just a lot fewer crowds and situations with close contact in general.

Re:Sweden to shut bars and restaurants that ignore coronavir... by im3w1l on Friday April 24, 2020 @12:02PM (#22969488)
With 1200 dead, that means on the order of 100k cases. Stockholm has about 1-2m people depending on how you count. It cannot grow exponentially for much longer, so the peak is close.

This is the most logical time to take measures, except for maybe the very beginning when it could possibly have been stopped.

Re:Sweden to shut bars and restaurants that ignore coronavir... by adventured on Friday April 24, 2020 @01:12PM (#22970490)
The big problem with Sweden's approach, is that the duration of immunity is entirely unknown when it comes to SARS-CoV-2. We don't yet know what antibody level is required to generate that hypothetical immunity, including whether asymptomatic and mild-case persons (which will be the vast majority of Sweden's herd) are going to have the required level of antibodies.

They're taking a swing in the dark, with the potential risk of a very high per capita mortality rate. If the duration of immunity is short, they could kill a lot of people for little gain. They're currently running at seven times the per capita mortality rate of Finland.

Re:Sweden to shut bars and restaurants that ignore coronavir... by dumbfounder on Friday April 24, 2020 @12:00PM (#22969455)
I think overall size of a population and population density have to be the contributing factors. More people means more people have traveled there from other places to spread the virus. More density means a higher R value.

The death rate per capita in Sweden is not much higher than the US. At ~33x the population the US has ~25x the deaths. Given the US had only double the total cases on March 6 as Sweden that seems like a positive indicator for Sweden's approach. It's like saying it doesn't really matter what you do so you might as well stay open. The timeline of when you started taking things seriously is also a big factor of course. I think it's way too early to declare anything yet, but I think it's good there are different approaches being taken to learn from.

Re:Sweden to shut bars and restaurants that ignore coronavir... by im3w1l on Friday April 24, 2020 @12:13PM (#22969650)
Stockholm has a lot of affluent people who went skiing in Italy and brought covid home. So many that contact tracing was very quickly overwhelmed. Government warned about traveling to Italy way too late.
Re:Sweden to shut bars and restaurants that ignore coronavir... by tonyedgecombe on Friday April 24, 2020 @12:21PM (#22969754)
I’m not sure making a per-capita comparison makes sense in the early stages of an epidemic.
Re:Sweden to shut bars and restaurants that ignore coronavir... by notacoward on Friday April 24, 2020 @12:30PM (#22969882)
Disease spread is too complex for either total-number or per-capita comparisons to capture it well, but total numbers are even more misleading.
Re:Sweden to shut bars and restaurants that ignore coronavir... by SpicyLemonZest on Friday April 24, 2020 @12:25PM (#22969808)
I don't think we're in the early stages anymore, though. A significant fraction of the population has been infected.
Re:Sweden to shut bars and restaurants that ignore coronavir... by tonyedgecombe on Friday April 24, 2020 @04:41PM (#22972711)
We don't know that yet.
Re:Sweden to shut bars and restaurants that ignore coronavir... by SpicyLemonZest on Friday April 24, 2020 @05:44PM (#22973236)
I disagree. It's unreasonable to doubt that at this point.
Re:Sweden to shut bars and restaurants that ignore coronavir... by rsynnott on Friday April 24, 2020 @12:29PM (#22969862)
I suppose one caution on this would be "capital/world city explodes, then growth shifts to the regions" is a pretty common pattern worldwide, for whatever reason.