I don't think anyone enjoys lockdown. At a minimum we need sufficient testing, sufficient ppes, sufficient surge capacity and training for standard supportive care. We are still quite a ways from that. Even if death is unavoidable people deserve to have reasonably good care.
This is broadly in the range implied by a number of measures across the entire population. 20x for randomized population sampling (Iceland), 20-80x from serology studies, etc.
In this analysis, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.18.20070821v... 35x is actually the exact factor that cases are estimated to be under-reported by in California. :P
> I don't think anyone enjoys lockdown. At a minimum we need sufficient testing, sufficient ppes, sufficient surge capacity and training for standard supportive care.
Here in the SF Bay Area, ICU usage peaked 3 weeks ago, and controls have been tightening. We're well below seasonal norms for ICU usage at this point. Surely the original controls that caused the original trend down in disease would be good enough now, and could even be loosened slightly further to have more parity with other jurisdictions that are successful.
We should expect that the proportion of people with Covid should be heavily biased towards the young for that reason, as it is for any disease that does not have a biased transmission.
Most indications I've seen is that the young are not harmed much by covid, but can still get infected just as easily, thus why we see:
"X% of hospitalizations are young people" as opposed to the statement that people actually interpret it as: "X% of young people infected with covid are hospitalized".
Does that make sense?