Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav...
by mlyle on Thursday April 23, 2020 @09:18PM
(#22963616)
> But to get from 7% (hospitalized to confirmed) to 1 in 500 is a factor of 35.
This is broadly in the range implied by a number of measures across the entire population. 20x for randomized population sampling (Iceland), 20-80x from serology studies, etc.
> I don't think anyone enjoys lockdown. At a minimum we need sufficient testing, sufficient ppes, sufficient surge capacity and training for standard supportive care.
Here in the SF Bay Area, ICU usage peaked 3 weeks ago, and controls have been tightening. We're well below seasonal norms for ICU usage at this point. Surely the original controls that caused the original trend down in disease would be good enough now, and could even be loosened slightly further to have more parity with other jurisdictions that are successful.
This is broadly in the range implied by a number of measures across the entire population. 20x for randomized population sampling (Iceland), 20-80x from serology studies, etc.
In this analysis, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.18.20070821v... 35x is actually the exact factor that cases are estimated to be under-reported by in California. :P
> I don't think anyone enjoys lockdown. At a minimum we need sufficient testing, sufficient ppes, sufficient surge capacity and training for standard supportive care.
Here in the SF Bay Area, ICU usage peaked 3 weeks ago, and controls have been tightening. We're well below seasonal norms for ICU usage at this point. Surely the original controls that caused the original trend down in disease would be good enough now, and could even be loosened slightly further to have more parity with other jurisdictions that are successful.