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A comment on Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies. Parent comment

Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by mynegation on Thursday April 23, 2020 @06:12PM (#22962161)
Sustained spread of the infection stops when percentage of people having immunity is 1-1/R0. So if R0 for Covid-19 is (hypothetically) 3, you need 67% immunity to reach herd immunity. For highly contagious diseases like smallpox that number is very close to 100%
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Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by slv77 on Thursday April 23, 2020 @09:23PM (#22963651)
The 1-1/R0 is the point that the virus starts to burn out but there is still a long tail of infections. The total population that is infected will be higher than 1 - 1/R0. Also if the estimates of IFR were too high than the estimates of R0 were too low.
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Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by mlyle on Thursday April 23, 2020 @07:16PM (#22962730)
Yes, but there's a world of difference between Rt=1.5 and Rt=2.5, both in the degree of controls necessary to bring Rt close to 1 and in how far it can get out of hand if your controls are somewhat insufficient.
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