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A comment on Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies. Parent comment

Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by nateberkopec on Thursday April 23, 2020 @05:52PM (#22961966)
It's more or less epidemiologically impossible that you will see an attack rate of 100% (as you just assumed). Once attack rate reaches >40~60%, the reproduction number drops below 1 because there just aren't enough uninfected hosts.
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Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by Uhhrrr on Thursday April 23, 2020 @07:14PM (#22962714)
It will probably be significantly higher than 60%, since COVID-19's R0 without lockdown seems to be pretty high. The CDC has estimated it at 5.7 [0]. Herd immunity threshold = 1 - 1/R0, so the threshold would be 82.4%.

[0] https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article?deliv...

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Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by GhostVII on Thursday April 23, 2020 @07:43PM (#22962969)
That R0 assumes we are taking essentially no measures to stop the virus though, right? I don't no much about it but it seems like the R0 would drop significantly if we keep doing social distancing, expand testing, make people wear masks, etc.
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Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by Uhhrrr on Thursday April 23, 2020 @09:14PM (#22963588)
It does, but the point of getting to herd immunity is that we don't want to do any of that other stuff.
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Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by s1artibartfast on Thursday April 23, 2020 @10:09PM (#22963930)
The 5.7 number comes from wuhan, during lunar new year, and before viral identification.
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