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Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by badfrog on Thursday April 23, 2020 @05:42PM (#22961856)
> New York City had the highest positive rate at 21.2%. The potential good news to come to light is that the death rate may be far lower than some estimates, at 0.5%.

How do they get to 0.5%? According to NYC data if you include "probable" cases, 15,400 people, or 0.18% of the population, are already dead. Wouldn't that imply 0.9% fatalities if the whole city was infected?

Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by kevindong on Friday April 24, 2020 @12:50AM (#22964749)
The data that NYC publishes daily is super interesting since it breaks down cases/deaths by race, gender, age (group), and presence of underlying health conditions [1].

The gist of it is that the majority of deaths from COVID-19 were suffered by people who had some kind of other health issue. As of the most recent data (April 22 at 6pm), 61 deaths were from people with no underlying health issues, 7,474 from people known to have underlying health issues, and 2,755 from people with unknown status [0]. The elderly in poor health are much more likely to die than the young in poor health. But when healthy, the elderly have pretty close to the same fatality rate as the young [2].

[0]: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-d...

[1]: Bottom of this page: https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

[2]: Cross reference this with [0]: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-d...

Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by anthonypasq on Friday April 24, 2020 @02:44PM (#22971576)
The majority of people are unhealthy
Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by guscost on Thursday April 23, 2020 @06:08PM (#22962124)
It would not be ruled as a significant factor leading to death in many of those cases, and for the rest, NYC residents might be more at risk due to higher average viral dose (subways). Also there is a lag in IgG antibody production, the test has imperfect sensitivity, and some portion of exposed people may never develop detectable antibodies. Some of these confounding variables are probably baked into the estimate.
Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by badfrog on Thursday April 23, 2020 @06:11PM (#22962143)
> some portion of exposed people may never develop detectable antibodies.

Interesting. Would those people still develop some form of immunity/resistance?

Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by guscost on Thursday April 23, 2020 @06:12PM (#22962154)
I think so, but I'm not an expert. See discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22958660
Re:Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents hav... by schrodinger on Thursday April 23, 2020 @06:14PM (#22962176)
Maybe that’s including the large number of deaths that are presumed COVID but weren’t officially confirmed by a test?